Global Situation Board: briefs

Morning note, 19 September 2026

2026-09-19T11:10:17Z

Overnight movers

Russia–Ukraine war: Russian attacks reportedly killed eight people in Ukraine and hit two vessels in the Black Sea, while the US State Department approved a potential air-defence sale to Ukraine worth about $2.6-2.7 billion. Al Jazeera, CBS News. No listed indicator.
Saudi Arabia–Houthi war: Air-raid sirens and alerts were reported in Riyadh for the first time since the Houthi escalation, with alerts issued across the country. The Straits Times, Ynetnews. No listed indicator.
Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA): A suicide bombing at a police-lines mosque in Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, reportedly killed 31 people, with the TTP reported to have claimed it. The Hindu, BBC. No listed indicator (the mass-casualty indicator names other cities).
Ethiopia & Eritrea: The United States reportedly lifted sanctions on Eritrea's ruling party and military. United News of Bangladesh, WUSA9. No listed indicator.
Myanmar civil war: The Arakan Army reportedly seized four junta outposts in a counteroffensive in the Sittwe-Ponnagyun area. Burma News International. No listed indicator.
Sanctions & evasion: Trump reportedly signed the Graham sanctions bill targeting Russia into law, and Russia warned it would harm peace efforts. Hromadske, NYT. Matches watch indicator: House action on the Graham secondary-tariff bill.
South & East China Sea: A China Coast Guard ship reportedly rammed and damaged a Philippine fisheries vessel off Palawan, with Manila and Beijing trading blame. Marine Insight, The Hindu. No listed indicator (no crew injuries reported in the headlines).
Moldova & Transnistria: Russian drones reportedly entered Moldovan airspace again during an attack on Ukraine, and the Foreign Ministry condemned an incident near Colonita. RBC-Ukraine, Moldpres. No listed indicator.

Dates in the next 7 days

2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-20: The multinational Strong Griffin 2026 exercise in Lithuania's Svencionys district near the Belarusian border is due to end; Russian State Duma elections are also scheduled to conclude (Russia–NATO frontier)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Saudi, Yemeni and Iranian leaders speak (Saudi Arabia–Houthi war)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Yemen on the agenda (Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war); Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week; Iranian leadership speaks and diaspora protests are planned in New York (Iran internal stability)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (Taiwan Strait; South & East China Sea; North Korea; US–China relations; Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-25: Russian gas deliveries to Armenia are due to resume after pipeline maintenance (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))

Morning note, 18 September 2026

2026-09-18T11:10:07Z

Overnight movers

Saudi Arabia–Houthi war: Houthis and Saudi Arabia were reported exchanging strikes as the Yemen fighting spreads, with a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia's Taif governorate drawing a Syrian condemnation. Daily Sabah, Fana News. No listed indicator (headlines do not report casualties or damage in Taif).
US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war): A UN mission reportedly found that a US strike that hit an Iranian school was indiscriminate and likely a war crime, and South Korea was reported to have ruled out sending its military to support the US war. Times of Israel, The Guardian. No listed indicator.
Russia–Ukraine war: A Ukrainian strike was reported to have crippled Russian Orion drone operations in Crimea, as Russia's Duma vote opened. UNITED24 Media. No listed indicator.
Iran nuclear program: Russia and China were reported to have vetoed a US-backed Security Council resolution extending UN monitoring of Iran sanctions, with Pakistan abstaining. Arab News PK, Streamline Feed. Matches watch indicator: The Panel of Experts renewal vote on Sept 27 (the veto was reported before that date).
Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA): A bomb attack at a mosque near police offices in Kohat reportedly killed at least 15 and injured 50, alongside a separate reported blast at a historic police HQ killing 8. Al Jazeera, BSS News. No listed indicator (reported toll below 20 and Kohat is not a listed city).
Ethiopia & Eritrea: Ethiopia said about 300 Tigray rebel fighters had surrendered. Ahram Online, Arab News. No listed indicator.
Somalia: Puntland and the US reportedly carried out an airstrike on an al-Shabaab weapons depot in the Golis Mountains. Garowe Online, FTL Somalia. No listed indicator.
South & East China Sea: A China Coast Guard vessel was reported to have rammed a civilian Philippine boat on a refuelling/resupply mission near Sabina Shoal, with no injuries reported and both sides trading blame. South China Morning Post, The Times of India. No listed indicator (the ramming indicator requires injuries to Philippine crews).

Dates in the next 7 days

2026-09-18: 70th IAEA General Conference closes in Vienna (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-18: Belarus's four-day Western Operational Command exercise at the Gozhsky, Brestsky and Ruzhansky ranges is due to end (Russia–NATO frontier; Belarus)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war; State cyber operations)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-20: The multinational Strong Griffin 2026 exercise in Lithuania's Svencionys district near the Belarusian border is due to end; Russian State Duma elections are also scheduled to conclude (Russia–NATO frontier)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Saudi, Yemeni and Iranian leaders speak (Saudi Arabia–Houthi war)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Yemen on the agenda (Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war); Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week; Iranian leadership speaks and diaspora protests are planned in New York (Iran internal stability)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (Taiwan Strait; South & East China Sea; North Korea; US–China relations; Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-25: Russian gas deliveries to Armenia are due to resume after pipeline maintenance (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))

Morning note, 17 September 2026

2026-09-17T11:10:31Z

Overnight movers

Russia–Ukraine war: Ukraine reported striking the Yaroslavl oil refinery and six Russian aircraft at a Rostov airfield, and the US House was reported to have passed a sanctions bill targeting Moscow. UNITED24 Media, RFE/RL. Matches watch indicator: House floor action on the Graham sanctions bill or new US secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers.
Saudi Arabia–Houthi war: The Houthis were reported to have claimed a new strike on Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh was reported to have called an attempted attack on Mecca a "red line". Hindustan Times, Millennium Post. No listed indicator.
Sudan civil war: A gold mine collapse was reported to have killed at least 82 people, with dozens more feared dead. Sky News, African Insider. No listed indicator.
Colombia: The US was reported to have removed Venezuela from its list of countries failing to combat drug trafficking while keeping Colombia on it. EL PAÍS English. Matches watch indicator: Publication of the US drug-certification determination and whether Colombia stays decertified.
Eastern DRC & Rwanda: Congolese forces were reported to have retaken key M23 bases in a fresh offensive. ChimpReports. No listed indicator.
Russian hybrid operations in Europe: The US was reported to have charged five people over an alleged Kremlin-directed plot to kill dissidents and sabotage Europe. Moldova 1, LRT. No listed indicator.
State cyber operations: At least 12 US states were reported to face cyberattacks on their water systems, and hackers were reported to claim access to Russia's election commission systems days before the Duma vote. ABC News, Meduza. No listed indicator.

Dates in the next 7 days

2026-09-17: Final official Swedish election result now expected (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-17: Opening round of Thailand-Cambodia UNCLOS conciliation in Singapore concludes (Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia)
2026-09-17: Peru's interior minister Cesar Astudillo faces interpellation in the Chamber of Deputies (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion; Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-18: 70th IAEA General Conference closes in Vienna (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-18: Belarus's four-day Western Operational Command exercise at the Gozhsky, Brestsky and Ruzhansky ranges is due to end (Russia–NATO frontier; Belarus)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war; State cyber operations)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-20: The multinational Strong Griffin 2026 exercise in Lithuania's Svencionys district near the Belarusian border is due to end; Russian State Duma elections are also scheduled to conclude (Russia–NATO frontier)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Saudi, Yemeni and Iranian leaders speak (Saudi Arabia–Houthi war)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Yemen on the agenda (Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war); Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week; Iranian leadership speaks and diaspora protests are planned in New York (Iran internal stability)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (Taiwan Strait; South & East China Sea; North Korea; US–China relations; Global institutions & diplomacy)

Morning note, 16 September 2026

2026-09-16T11:09:32Z

Overnight movers

Russia–Ukraine war: The US House was reported to be taking up the Russia sanctions bill backed by the late Senator Graham. KFGO; matches watch indicator: House floor action on the Graham sanctions bill or new US secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers.
Saudi Arabia–Houthi war: Saudi Arabia was reported to accuse the Houthis of attacking Mecca and to have intercepted a Houthi drone near the city, calling Mecca a "red line"; a Houthi official denied it. NBC News, Kurdistan24; no listed indicator.
Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea: US officials were reported to have met the Houthis in Oman over the weekend, and the Houthis reportedly claimed an F-15 shootdown. Forth.News, Kurdistan24; no listed indicator.
US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war): US forces were reported to have destroyed two Iranian boats after a drone seizure attempt near Hormuz, and US, Israeli and Arab military chiefs reportedly held a secret meeting on the war. Dainik Jagran, samaa tv; no listed indicator.
Sudan civil war: A drone swarm was reported to have struck an airport and fuel station in a Sudanese state capital near Ethiopia, and the army reportedly intercepted drones targeting two major dams. Business Insider Africa, Benin Web TV; no listed indicator.
India–Pakistan & China–India: A Pakistani ship was reported to have collided with an Indian Navy vessel in the Arabian Sea, and India summoned a Pakistani diplomat. The Indian Express, Al Jazeera; no listed indicator.
Belarus: Belarus was reported to be releasing 25 political prisoners in exchange for the US easing sanctions on Belarusian companies, per a Trump envoy. The Kyiv Independent, The Jerusalem Post; no listed indicator.
Israel–Gaza: At least 16 to 20 people were reported killed when a Gaza City building damaged by Israeli strikes collapsed, with dozens missing. BBC, The Guardian; no listed indicator.

Dates in the next 7 days

2026-09-16: Announced suspension of public transport in Gaza takes effect (Israel–Gaza)
2026-09-16: Counting of about 300,000 Swedish advance and overseas ballots begins (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-16: DRC-Rwanda Joint Security Coordination Mechanism talks in Geneva (Sept 16-17) (Eastern DRC & Rwanda)
2026-09-17: Final official Swedish election result now expected (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-17: Opening round of Thailand-Cambodia UNCLOS conciliation in Singapore concludes (Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia)
2026-09-17: Peru's interior minister Cesar Astudillo faces interpellation in the Chamber of Deputies (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion; Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-18: 70th IAEA General Conference closes in Vienna (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-18: Belarus's four-day Western Operational Command exercise at the Gozhsky, Brestsky and Ruzhansky ranges is due to end (Russia–NATO frontier; Belarus)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war; State cyber operations)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-20: The multinational Strong Griffin 2026 exercise in Lithuania's Svencionys district near the Belarusian border is due to end; Russian State Duma elections are also scheduled to conclude (Russia–NATO frontier)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Saudi, Yemeni and Iranian leaders speak (Saudi Arabia–Houthi war)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Yemen on the agenda (Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war); Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week; Iranian leadership speaks and diaspora protests are planned in New York (Iran internal stability)

Weekly review, 15 September 2026

2026-09-15T20:42:19Z

Executive summary

Gulf states & Turkey (gulf-turkey) rose to 4 and to Escalating from 3/Tense/Stable. Saudi civil defence activated Mecca's emergency warning system for the first time in the war on Sept 15, with alerts also issued for Jeddah and Taif, after Houthi missiles and drones on Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif wounded 13 civilians; with the East–West pipeline still offline from the Sept 10 Iraqi-launched drone strike and the Salalah Hormuz meeting collapsed, the Gulf states are absorbing attack across the full width of Saudi territory rather than episodic missile pressure.
Russia–NATO frontier (russia-nato) fell to 4, status and trend unchanged at Escalating/Escalating. This is an override of the level 5 the editor set by hand on 2026-09-15 and a return to the researched baseline of 4, not a downgrade on new evidence: Denmark summoned Russia's ambassador over the Sept 14 flare incident off Gedser but expressly declined to invoke Article 4 or 5, and the Sept 15 Lithuanian drone shootdown produced no casualties, no state attribution and a request for reinforced air defences rather than an alliance consultation. Two contained frontier incidents that both allies deliberately declined to escalate meet the definition of 4 — serious risk of interstate escalation — not the global-consequence threshold of 5. No other editor-set level was outstanding, nothing was upheld, and nothing was left unresolved.
Biggest development, Baltic: Italian jets on NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission shot down a drone over Lithuania's Kaisiadorys district on Sept 15, the first drone downed in Lithuanian airspace and the first kinetic engagement of that mission, hours after Belarus opened a Sept 15-18 Western Operational Command exercise on the Polish and Lithuanian borders. Denmark's Sept 15 démarche over the frigate flare incident ran in parallel. Neither russia-nato nor infrastructure moved on it.
Biggest development, Gulf and Yemen: the Sept 15 Houthi salvo triggered the first wartime emergency alerts for Mecca, Jeddah and Taif, the coalition vowed a firm response, displacement since Sept 1 passed 125,000 and the Security Council met in emergency session on Yemen (reported by a single outlet). France separately requested an emergency Council session on Bab al-Mandab. Brent rose 1.77% to about $107.55, and Iran's Mohsen Rezaei is reported to have rejected talks unless Tehran's conditions are met.
Biggest development, Africa: UN agencies warned on Sept 14 that Sudan's Common Humanitarian Pipeline could exhaust shelter, sanitation and relief stocks by end-September, with 8.6m displaced and about 19.5m at crisis-level hunger. In DRC, police tear-gassed C64 protests against Tshisekedi's constitutional amendment in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and Uvira on Sept 15, on the eve of DRC–Rwanda Geneva JSCM talks set for Sept 16-17; sudan holds at 5 and drc at 4.
Ukraine unchanged at 5/Active war. ISW assessed no confirmed advances by either side on Sept 14; Russia scaled jet-powered Geran-4 output to roughly 2,800 in August from 350 in June, and Peskov refused reciprocity on Zelensky's offer of a mutual moratorium on energy strikes.
Americas unchanged. Colombia's De la Espriella confirmed on Sept 15 that army Gaula units freed eight ELN hostages in rural Convención with US assistance — the first visible joint US–Colombian ground operation of the new government — while the FY2027 US drug-certification determination, statutorily due Sept 15, had not been published; colombia holds at 4. Thousands marched in Culiacán against the Sinaloa Cartel's internal war, reported Sept 14 with a two-year toll above 3,000.
Indo-Pacific unchanged. KCNA disclosed on Sept 14 that North Korea's Sept 12 Wonsan launch was a joint firepower drill by five artillery and missile units combining attack drones, a tactical cruise missile, a thermobaric MLRS and a tactical ballistic missile — a wider conventional strike package inside the established pattern. Thailand and Cambodia opened non-binding UNCLOS conciliation in Singapore on Sept 15, and the Arakan Army repelled renewed junta advances in Kyaukphyu on Sept 14, leaving Operation 4926 eleven days old with no ground taken.
Main gap — window length. The previous review ran on 2026-09-14, so five of six regions worked a 24-to-48-hour window. "No verified development in the window" covers roughly twenty entries — including sahel, nigeria, somalia, libya, haiti, venezuela, us-hemisphere, south-asia, south-china-sea, us-china, nuclear and cyber — which carry forward their previous recent lists with only the assessment date moved. That is a short window, not a quiet world.
Main gap — sourcing. Reported on one outlet or read only through snippets: the Yemen Security Council session and Rezaei's rejection of talks, Sweden's final-result delay to Sept 17, the Afghanistan Freedom Front's claim of momentum (Pakistan's state broadcaster quoting an anti-Taliban commander), the Sept 14 Qilla Abdullah raid, Eritrea's "port-based colonialism" accusation, and the M23 parallel-governance item. Contested: Malian losses at Dioura (at least 50 against reports of 60-80) with five Africa Corps deaths unconfirmed by Moscow or Bamako, the MV Sward ransom ($1.7m against $2.7m), and the identity of those killed in the Sept 15 Gaza strikes. Fetches failed at Crisis Group CrisisWatch (403, three regions), ISW's Sept 15 assessment (404, unpublished at fetch time), Bloomberg, Inquirer, GMA, The Hill, the Caracas embassy and press.un.org; the americas agent identified and discarded a stale Datafolha poll that search had surfaced as September 2026 data.

Changes in threat, status or trend

Entry	Region	Before	After
Gulf states & Turkey	Middle East	3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating	4 / Escalating / Escalating
Russia–NATO frontier	Europe & Russia	5 / Escalating / Escalating	4 / Escalating / Escalating

New entries this week

none

Removed this week

none

Threat ladder on 15 September 2026

Level	Flashpoints (status, trend)
5	Russia–Ukraine war (Active war, escalating); Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (Active war, escalating); Saudi Arabia–Houthi war (Active war, escalating); Sudan civil war (Active war, escalating); US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (Active war, escalating); Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (Active war, escalating)
4	Colombia (Escalating, escalating); Eastern DRC & Rwanda (Active war, stable); Ethiopia & Eritrea (Escalating, escalating); Gulf states & Turkey (Escalating, escalating); Haiti (Active war, escalating); Infrastructure & domain sabotage (Escalating, escalating); Iran internal stability (Escalating, escalating); Iran nuclear program (Escalating, escalating); Iraq (Escalating, escalating); Lebanon & Hezbollah (Active war, stable); Myanmar civil war (Active war, escalating); Nigeria & Lake Chad (Escalating, escalating); Nuclear weapons & arms control (Tense/Stable, escalating); Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA) (Active war, escalating); Private military companies & proxies (Escalating, escalating); Russian hybrid operations in Europe (Escalating, escalating); Russia–NATO frontier (Escalating, escalating); Somalia (Escalating, escalating); South Sudan (Active war, stable); State cyber operations (Escalating, escalating)
3	Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war (Tense/Stable, stable); Belarus (Watch, escalating); Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America (Escalating, stable); Disinformation & election interference (Escalating, escalating); Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia (Escalating, escalating); Global institutions & diplomacy (Watch, stable); India–Pakistan & China–India (Tense/Stable, stable); Israel–Gaza (Tense/Stable, stable); Libya (Tense/Stable, easing); Mexico & cartels (Escalating, escalating); Moldova & Transnistria (Tense/Stable, escalating); Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa (Escalating, escalating); North Korea (Tense/Stable, stable); Sanctions & evasion (Escalating, escalating); South & East China Sea (Escalating, escalating); Syria transition (Tense/Stable, stable); Taiwan Strait (Tense/Stable, stable); Terrorism (Tense/Stable, stable); US posture in the hemisphere (Escalating, escalating); Venezuela (Tense/Stable, stable); West Bank (Escalating, escalating)
2	Brazil & Southern Cone (Watch, escalating); Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar) (Watch, stable); Japan, South Korea & Pacific (Watch, stable); Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania (Watch, escalating); South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) (Tense/Stable, stable); Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia (Watch, stable); US–China relations (De-escalating, easing); Western Balkans (Tense/Stable, escalating)

Dates in the next 30 days

2026-09-16: Announced suspension of public transport in Gaza takes effect (Israel–Gaza)
2026-09-16: Counting of about 300,000 Swedish advance and overseas ballots begins (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-16: DRC-Rwanda Joint Security Coordination Mechanism talks in Geneva (Sept 16-17) (Eastern DRC & Rwanda)
2026-09-17: Final official Swedish election result now expected (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-17: Opening round of Thailand-Cambodia UNCLOS conciliation in Singapore concludes (Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia)
2026-09-17: Peru's interior minister Cesar Astudillo faces interpellation in the Chamber of Deputies (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion)
2026-09-18: 70th IAEA General Conference closes in Vienna (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-18: Belarus's Western Operational Command exercise is due to end (Belarus)
2026-09-18: Belarus's four-day Western Operational Command exercise at the Gozhsky, Brestsky and Ruzhansky ranges is due to end (Russia–NATO frontier)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election begins (three days of voting) (State cyber operations)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-20: The multinational Strong Griffin 2026 exercise in Lithuania's Svencionys district near the Belarusian border is due to end; Russian State Duma elections are also scheduled to conclude (Russia–NATO frontier)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Saudi, Yemeni and Iranian leaders speak (Saudi Arabia–Houthi war)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Yemen on the agenda (Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week; Iranian leadership speaks and diaspora protests are planned in New York (Iran internal stability)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (North Korea)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (South & East China Sea)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (Taiwan Strait)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit, Washington (US–China relations)
2026-09-25: Russian gas deliveries to Armenia are due to resume after pipeline maintenance (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
2026-09-27: Panel of Experts expiry and 90-day 1737 Committee briefing (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-27: UN Iran Panel of Experts mandate lapses (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-27: Vucic says he will resign the Serbian presidency to lead his party's election campaign (Western Balkans)
2026-09-29: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
2026-09-29: US bans on Canadian dairy, motorcycles and alcohol take effect (US posture in the hemisphere)
2026-09-30: Approval window for the election deal closes (approximate) (Libya)
2026-09-30: Coalition exit and militia disarmament deadline (Iraq)
2026-09-30: Iraqi deadline for militias to disarm, coinciding with the end of the US-led coalition mission (Private military companies & proxies)
2026-09-30: Tulkarm and Nur Shams camp closure orders lapse or renew (West Bank)
2026-09-30: UN Security Council vote on re-authorising the Gang Suppression Force (Haiti)
2026-09-30: UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate) (Syria transition)
2026-10-01: PKK camp disarmament deadline (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-10-01: PKK camp disarmament deadline under the Iraq-KRG-Turkey mechanism (Iraq)
2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Russian hybrid operations in Europe)
2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Western Balkans)
2026-10-04: Brazil first round (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-10-04: Brazil first-round presidential election (Brazil & Southern Cone)
2026-10-09: Darfur sanctions rollover expires (approximately Oct 9-12) (Sudan civil war)
2026-10-13: Voter registration closes (Haiti)

Morning note, 15 September 2026

2026-09-15T11:12:25Z

Overnight movers

Saudi Arabia–Houthi war (threat 5): Houthi attacks on Saudi territory reportedly injured 13 civilians, with alerts issued for several cities and an emergency warning over "potential danger" in Mecca. Arab News, Türkiye Today. No listed indicator (the indicator requires civilian deaths or a multi-day shutdown).
Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (threat 5): A Houthi official reported that a Saudi air strike killed three people, including two children. The Irish News. No listed indicator.
US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (threat 5): An oil tanker hit off Oman on Saturday was reported under tow back to an Omani port after an engine-room fire, and Iran was reported to have placed 77 vessels on a non-compliance list. The Sunday Guardian, safety4sea. No listed indicator.
Sudan civil war (threat 5): At least 11 explosions were reported in an eastern Sudanese state capital as a drone swarm struck an airport and a fuel station near the Ethiopian border. africa.businessinsider.com. No listed indicator.
Russia–Ukraine war (threat 5): Lavrov was reported saying Russia is ready for a new round of trilateral talks with the US and Ukraine, while blaming Washington for prolonging the war. Meduza. No listed indicator (no date or venue was reported).
Russia–NATO frontier (threat 4): NATO jets shot down a drone that entered Lithuanian airspace overnight, and Denmark summoned Russia's envoy after a Russian warship reportedly fired flares at a Danish military helicopter. The Guardian, Euractiv. No listed indicator (a drone, not a manned aircraft).
Russian hybrid operations in Europe (threat 4): Suspected sabotage was reported to have caused major rail disruption in the Netherlands. BBC. No listed indicator.
Nuclear weapons & arms control (threat 4): The US military confirmed it has deployed weapons in space, and China warned Washington against a space arms race. CNN, Malay Mail. No listed indicator.

Dates in the next 7 days

2026-09-15: Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the peace treaty (unconfirmed) (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
2026-09-15: Belarusian House of Representatives session opens (Belarus)
2026-09-15: US drug-certification memo (approximate) (Mexico & cartels; Colombia)
2026-09-17: Peru's interior minister Cesar Astudillo faces interpellation in the Chamber of Deputies (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion; Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war; State cyber operations)
2026-09-19: Final official results of the Swedish general election expected, Sept 19-20 (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Saudi, Yemeni and Iranian leaders speak (Saudi Arabia–Houthi war)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war); Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)

Weekly review, 14 September 2026

2026-09-14T10:26:27Z

Executive summary

iraq: threat 3 -> 4, status Tense/Stable -> Escalating. Drones launched from Iraqi territory hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and pumping stations on Sept 10, forcing Riyadh to shut the line on Sept 11 while reserving the right to take "all necessary measures"; Iranian missiles struck three Iranian Kurdish opposition camps in the Kurdistan Region on Sept 14. With the Sept 30 coalition-exit and disarmament double deadline and Kataib Hezbollah and Nujaba rejecting both disarmament formulas, this is serious risk of interstate escalation rather than political tension.
pmc: threat 3 -> 4. Same trigger from the proxy side: Iraq said on Sept 13 it had seized the launch platform in Maysan province and dismissed local commanders, and Saudi Arabia held off retaliation only at Baghdad's request. A third state's export infrastructure struck from a fourth state's territory meets the level-4 test.
syria: trend Easing -> Stable (threat 3 and status Tense/Stable unchanged). On Sept 13-14 demonstrators blocked the M5 near Maarat al-Numan and protested in Idlib, Hama, Khan Sheikhoun, Azaz and al-Bab after the Oil Ministry raised petroleum prices 25 to 40 percent, with the Syrian Observatory reporting security forces firing live ammunition — the first broad street protests of the transition, which is not an easing direction.
Biggest development of the week: the pipeline shutdown and the collapse of the first Gulf-Iran de-escalation channel. The East-West line removed 4 to 5 percent of global oil supply and pushed Brent above 104 dollars; Oman then postponed the Sept 14 Salalah meeting of Iranian, Iraqi and Gulf foreign ministers on Hormuz on Sept 13 with no new date, reportedly at Saudi request and with Bahrain already refusing to attend.
Second: a Russian drone struck a Warsaw-bound train at Yahodyn on the Ukrainian-Polish border on Sept 13, minutes after a diplomatic train carrying Boris Johnson, Carl Bildt and EU security advisers departed; Ukraine's rail operator said that train was probably the target and NATO called the border threat real and imminent. No casualty, no Article 4 invocation, so russia-nato holds at 4/Escalating.
Third: Niger's junta reshuffled its senior military command by decree on Sept 13, replacing armed forces chief Moussa Salaou Barmou after the late-August Niamey mutiny; Al Jazeera reported on Sept 14 that roughly 200 Russian Africa Corps troops helped loyalists retake Air Base 101, with at least 27 killed and about 100 arrested, and that Mali and Burkina Faso stayed inactive (single-sourced).
Also of note: BRICS adopted the 140-paragraph New Delhi Declaration by consensus on Sept 12, a day early, urging restraint in the Middle East and criticising unilateral tariffs without naming the US; the Xi-Modi bilateral produced no boundary or rare-earth deliverable. Sweden's Sept 13 election ended in a near-tie with final results not due until Sept 19-20, a certification gap that fraud narratives exploit.
Main gap — a two-day window. Every previous assessment was dated 2026-09-12 or 2026-09-13, so about half the entries have no new recent items and keep their previous lists. That is a genuine absence of in-window news rather than a research failure, but it means this run re-anchors dates more than it revises judgements.
Source gaps: Crisis Group CrisisWatch returned HTTP 403 for four regions, removing the main cross-region sweep, and the ISW Iran updates for Sept 12 and 13 both 404'd, leaving the Middle East without its usual daily anchor. Several Sept 13 Middle East items (Qeshm vessel attack, southern Lebanon strikes, Al-Aqsa entries, Gaza generator failures) rest on one aggregator and are reported, not established.
Contested or single-sourced items to treat with care: the attribution of the pipeline attack to Tehran acting through Iraqi militias is one analyst's judgement quoted by Al Jazeera, and no group claimed it; Houthi and Al Jazeera counts of Saudi air strikes (more than 300 in five days, 129 in 48 hours) are unconfirmed by Riyadh; Brazilian polling reversed direction twice in four days, both inside the margin of error; and reported Nigerian attacks at Darul Jamal and Banki could not be pinned to a 2026 date and were excluded, which is the weakest spot in the nigeria entry.

Changes in threat, status or trend

Entry	Region	Before	After
Iraq	Middle East	3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating	4 / Escalating / Escalating
Private military companies & proxies	Transnational & Hybrid	3 / Escalating / Escalating	4 / Escalating / Escalating
Syria transition	Middle East	3 / Tense/Stable / Easing	3 / Tense/Stable / Stable

New entries this week

none

Removed this week

none

Threat ladder on 14 September 2026

Level	Flashpoints (status, trend)
5	Russia–Ukraine war (Active war, escalating); Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (Active war, escalating); Saudi Arabia–Houthi war (Active war, escalating); Sudan civil war (Active war, escalating); US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (Active war, escalating); Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (Active war, escalating)
4	Colombia (Escalating, escalating); Eastern DRC & Rwanda (Active war, stable); Ethiopia & Eritrea (Escalating, escalating); Haiti (Active war, escalating); Infrastructure & domain sabotage (Escalating, escalating); Iran internal stability (Escalating, escalating); Iran nuclear program (Escalating, escalating); Iraq (Escalating, escalating); Lebanon & Hezbollah (Active war, stable); Myanmar civil war (Active war, escalating); Nigeria & Lake Chad (Escalating, escalating); Nuclear weapons & arms control (Tense/Stable, escalating); Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA) (Active war, escalating); Private military companies & proxies (Escalating, escalating); Russian hybrid operations in Europe (Escalating, escalating); Russia–NATO frontier (Escalating, escalating); Somalia (Escalating, escalating); South Sudan (Active war, stable); State cyber operations (Escalating, escalating)
3	Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war (Tense/Stable, stable); Belarus (Watch, escalating); Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America (Escalating, stable); Disinformation & election interference (Escalating, escalating); Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia (Escalating, escalating); Global institutions & diplomacy (Watch, stable); Gulf states & Turkey (Tense/Stable, escalating); India–Pakistan & China–India (Tense/Stable, stable); Israel–Gaza (Tense/Stable, stable); Libya (Tense/Stable, easing); Mexico & cartels (Escalating, escalating); Moldova & Transnistria (Tense/Stable, escalating); Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa (Escalating, escalating); North Korea (Tense/Stable, stable); Sanctions & evasion (Escalating, escalating); South & East China Sea (Escalating, escalating); Syria transition (Tense/Stable, stable); Taiwan Strait (Tense/Stable, stable); Terrorism (Tense/Stable, stable); US posture in the hemisphere (Escalating, escalating); Venezuela (Tense/Stable, stable); West Bank (Escalating, escalating)
2	Brazil & Southern Cone (Watch, escalating); Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar) (Watch, stable); Japan, South Korea & Pacific (Watch, stable); Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania (Watch, escalating); South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) (Tense/Stable, stable); Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia (Watch, stable); US–China relations (De-escalating, easing); Western Balkans (Tense/Stable, escalating)

Dates in the next 30 days

2026-09-14: IAEA General Conference opens in Vienna without Iran's nuclear chief (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-15: Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the peace treaty (unconfirmed) (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
2026-09-15: Belarusian House of Representatives session opens (Belarus)
2026-09-15: US drug-certification determination (approximate) (Colombia)
2026-09-15: US drug-certification memo (approximate) (Mexico & cartels)
2026-09-17: Peru's interior minister Cesar Astudillo faces interpellation in the Chamber of Deputies (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election begins (three days of voting) (State cyber operations)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war)
2026-09-19: Final official results of the Swedish general election expected, Sept 19-20 (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Saudi, Yemeni and Iranian leaders speak (Saudi Arabia–Houthi war)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (North Korea)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (South & East China Sea)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (Taiwan Strait)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit, Washington (US–China relations)
2026-09-27: French Senate election (Russia–NATO frontier)
2026-09-27: Panel of Experts expiry and 90-day 1737 Committee briefing (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-27: UN Iran Panel of Experts mandate lapses (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-29: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
2026-09-29: US bans on Canadian dairy, motorcycles and alcohol take effect (US posture in the hemisphere)
2026-09-30: Approval window for the election deal closes (approximate) (Libya)
2026-09-30: Coalition exit and militia disarmament deadline (Iraq)
2026-09-30: Iraqi deadline for militias to disarm, coinciding with the end of the US-led coalition mission (Private military companies & proxies)
2026-09-30: Tulkarm and Nur Shams camp closure orders lapse or renew (West Bank)
2026-09-30: UN Security Council vote on re-authorising the Gang Suppression Force (Haiti)
2026-09-30: UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate) (Syria transition)
2026-10-01: PKK camp disarmament deadline (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-10-01: PKK camp disarmament deadline under the Iraq-KRG-Turkey mechanism (Iraq)
2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Russian hybrid operations in Europe)
2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Western Balkans)
2026-10-04: Brazil first round (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-10-04: Brazil first-round presidential election (Brazil & Southern Cone)
2026-10-09: Darfur sanctions rollover expires (approximately Oct 9-12) (Sudan civil war)
2026-10-13: Voter registration closes (Haiti)

Morning note, 14 September 2026

2026-09-14T11:12:48Z

Overnight movers

Saudi Arabia–Houthi war — The Houthis said they targeted military facilities inside Saudi Arabia, with reporting on a large-scale claimed strike on the King Khalid air base at Khamis Mushait, and the Saudi crown prince met the US CENTCOM chief afterwards to discuss the escalation. (Ahram Online, Reuters) — matches watch indicator: A Houthi missile or drone strike that kills civilians or forces a multi-day shutdown at the Jazan refinery, Yanbu or the Abha and Khamis Mushait bases
Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea — AP reported the Houthis seized further key islands in the southern Red Sea, tightening their grip on the shipping routes through Bab el-Mandeb. (AP News) — no listed indicator
US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) — Iran said the postponed talks on the Strait of Hormuz proposal were put off because of events in Yemen, with the diplomatic track reported as stalled. (Al Jazeera, The Express Tribune) — matches watch indicator: Oman announcing a new date for the postponed Salalah round, or a Hormuz management text being agreed
Russia–Ukraine war — Police were reported as saying a Russian strike on a Ukrainian warehouse killed three people. (Al Arabiya English) — no listed indicator
Sudan civil war — Paramilitary drones were reported to have attacked the capital of Sudan's Blue Nile state, near the Ethiopian border. (Free Malaysia Today) — no listed indicator
Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) — Niger's military government was reported to have reshuffled its army command, replacing the heads of service weeks after the deadly mutiny. (Al Jazeera, BBC) — no listed indicator
Iraq — The United States was reported to have warned Baghdad that dollar transfers would stop unless the militias are disarmed by the Sept 30 deadline. (Kurdistan24) — no listed indicator
Iran nuclear program — Austria was reported to have denied a visa to Iran's atomic energy chief for the IAEA General Conference in Vienna, and Tehran summoned the Austrian envoy, blaming US pressure. (Anadolu Ajansı, Moneycontrol) — no listed indicator

Dates in the next 7 days

2026-09-14: IAEA General Conference opens in Vienna without Iran's nuclear chief (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-15: Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the peace treaty (unconfirmed) (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
2026-09-15: Belarusian House of Representatives session opens (Belarus)
2026-09-15: US drug-certification memo (approximate) (Mexico & cartels; Colombia)
2026-09-17: Peru's interior minister Cesar Astudillo faces interpellation in the Chamber of Deputies (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion; Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war; State cyber operations)
2026-09-19: Final official results of the Swedish general election expected, Sept 19-20 (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)

Morning note, 13 September 2026

2026-09-13T11:12:00Z

Overnight movers

Russia–Ukraine war (threat 5): Ukraine was reported to have struck the TANECO oil refinery some 1,200 km from the border, and a Russian drone was reported to have hit a passenger train running from Kyiv to Warsaw near the Polish border. TANECO strike drone hits Kyiv–Warsaw train — no listed indicator.
Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (threat 5): The Houthis claimed a missile and drone attack on a Saudi military base amid renewed fighting. Houthi claim Times of Israel — no listed indicator.
US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (threat 5): An attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was reported to have killed one and injured three, while Tehran was reported to say the Oman Hormuz understanding will not immediately reopen the strait. vessel attack Iran–Oman deal — matches watch indicator: A Hormuz management arrangement emerging from the Salalah GCC-Iran channel.
Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (threat 5): Niger's military government was reported to have reshuffled its army command weeks after the deadly mutiny in Niamey. Al Jazeera — matches watch indicator: A second coup attempt or purge in Niamey.
Lebanon & Hezbollah (threat 4): Israel–Lebanon talks were reported postponed until October, and Israeli forces were reported to have carried out another explosion in Khiam. talks postponed Khiam explosion — no listed indicator.
Myanmar civil war (threat 4): The Arakan Army was reported to have captured three outposts as the junta's border offensive triggered clashes, and a military airstrike near Ponnagyun was reported to have killed two. AA captures outposts Ponnagyun airstrike — no listed indicator.
Russian hybrid operations in Europe (threat 4): An explosion and large fire at a Bulgarian ammunition depot supplying Ukraine was reported, with a sabotage probe opened. Kyiv Independent — no listed indicator.
Iraq (threat 3): Baghdad was reported to have confirmed that the drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was launched from Iraqi territory, and Iraqi forces were reported to have seized the launching platform. Baghdad confirms platform seized — matches watch indicator: Iranian or Iraqi-launched missiles and drones transiting toward Saudi Arabia.

Dates in the next 7 days

2026-09-13: BRICS leaders' declaration expected, New Delhi (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-13: BRICS summit in New Delhi ends (India–Pakistan & China–India)
2026-09-13: Sweden general election (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-14: GCC, Iraqi and Iranian foreign ministers meet in Salalah, Oman on Hormuz (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war); Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-14: Week the US House may take up the Graham sanctions bill (contested; reported stalled to November) (Russia–Ukraine war)
2026-09-15: Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the peace treaty (unconfirmed) (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
2026-09-15: Belarusian House of Representatives session opens (Belarus)
2026-09-15: US drug-certification memo (approximate) (Mexico & cartels; Colombia)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war; State cyber operations)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)

Weekly review, 12 September 2026

2026-09-13T22:23:43Z

Executive summary

Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea goes to 5 / Active war (from 4 / Escalating). The Houthis completed the seizure of Yemen's Red Sea coast — Mocha on Sept 10, then Dhubab, Perim and the Hanish islands by Sept 11 — and declared Saudi vessels banned from Bab el-Mandeb, putting Iran-aligned forces on both maritime approaches to the Arabian Peninsula while Saudi Arabia entered direct combat.
Nuclear weapons & arms control: trend Stable -> Escalating, threat held at 4. The IAEA Board voted 23-3 with eight abstentions on Sept 9 to refer Iran to the UN Security Council, the first referral in 20 years. Threat stayed at 4 because the escalation is institutional and Council follow-through faces Russian and Chinese vetoes.
Afghanistan drops to 3 / Tense/Stable (from 4 / Active war). The Security Council Report September forecast records large-scale Afghanistan-Pakistan hostilities decreasing since late June and early July, leaving cross-border militancy rather than sustained interstate fighting. This is the week's weakest call — see gaps.
India–Pakistan & China–India: trend Escalating -> Stable, threat held at 3. Xi arrived in New Delhi Sept 12-13 for BRICS with a Modi bilateral, his first India visit since 2019, moving the China-India leg toward easing while Pakistan-internal violence stayed high but did not worsen.
Biggest development without a level change: the Gulf energy corridor came under attack from a second direction. Drones launched from Iraq struck Saudi pumping stations south of Medina around Sept 10 and Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline on Sept 11, putting 3-4 mb/d of Hormuz-bypass capacity at risk with Brent above 100 dollars. Offsetting it, Oman announced on Sept 11 that GCC, Iraqi and Iranian foreign ministers would meet in Salalah on Sept 14 on a temporary Hormuz arrangement — the first such channel since the war began.
Ukraine's deep-strike reach, not the front line, is where the war moved. On Sept 9 Ukraine hit the Novorossiysk naval base (nine oil tanks, an S-300, the frigate Admiral Essen) and reached the Purovsky gas plant 3,200 km inside Russia, a record; ISW assessed no confirmed ground gains by either side on Sept 11. Putin met Witkoff and Kushner on Sept 5 and took a Trump call on Sept 8 with a reciprocal pause on capital strikes, but no ceasefire and no dated round followed.
Europe's sabotage campaign drew its first collective industry response. On Sept 11 the defence-industry association ASD publicly urged firms, governments and agencies to co-ordinate against sabotage after a run of fires and explosions at defence sites, and Defense News detailed on Sept 10 how Russian GUGI submersibles rehearsed a traceless subsea-cable cut near Svalbard before being confronted by UK, Norwegian and US forces.
Sudan's arms embargo was rolled over for only one month on Sept 11 and kept Darfur-only, with Russia blocking the nationwide version, making the October vote the region's main diplomatic pressure point; Libya was the clearest easing track, with the Security Council endorsing the Aug 30 election deal on Sept 9 and the rival speakers reported on Sept 11 to have agreed to revive the 6+6 electoral-law committee.
The Americas: Colombia formally closed the negotiating track — De la Espriella revoked the government's delegations to the ELN and all other dialogue tables on Sept 11 (reported), ending "paz total" — while Rubio said on Sept 9 that cartels control "vast territories" of Mexico and hinted at unilateral US action, with Sheinbaum answering on Sept 10 that "Mexico is nobody's piñata".
Main gaps: the Afghanistan downgrade rests chiefly on one source with no Afghanistan-specific in-window item and should be re-checked next week; twelve entries had no verified in-window development and kept their previous events (somalia, coup-belt, jnim, al-shabaab, m23, hamas, china-cyber, africa-corps, dprk-cyber, viv-ansanm, cjng, sinaloa, tren-de-aragua); ISW's Sept 12 assessments were not yet published and Crisis Group CrisisWatch, CNN, Colombia One and several regional outlets refused fetching.
Reported, not established: the Houthi ban on Saudi vessels and the Salalah meeting rest on single accounts or snippets; Brent's Sept 11 level is reported variously between 100 and 108; the Colombia dialogue-table revocation and the Libya 6+6 revival are snippet-only; Peskov's Sept 11 nuclear threat to Lithuania appears only in Russian state media; the Zelensky aircraft near-miss is disputed between Norway's PM and Moldova and Kyiv. Two previous entries were corrected rather than carried: the "UNSC renews CTED for three years" item was wrong (that renewal was in December 2025), and the Ocaña attack is recorded as a Sept 4 assault killing two soldiers rather than the previous Sept 3 drone attack killing three.

Changes in threat, status or trend

Entry	Region	Before	After
Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea	Middle East	4 / Escalating / Escalating	5 / Active war / Escalating
Nuclear weapons & arms control	Transnational & Hybrid	4 / Tense/Stable / Stable	4 / Tense/Stable / Escalating
Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war	Indo-Pacific & South Asia	4 / Active war / Stable	3 / Tense/Stable / Stable
India–Pakistan & China–India	Indo-Pacific & South Asia	3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating	3 / Tense/Stable / Stable

Threat ladder on 12 September 2026

Level	Flashpoints (status, trend)
5	Russia–Ukraine war (Active war, escalating); Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (Active war, escalating); Sudan civil war (Active war, escalating); US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (Active war, escalating); Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (Active war, escalating)
4	Colombia (Escalating, escalating); Eastern DRC & Rwanda (Active war, stable); Ethiopia & Eritrea (Escalating, escalating); Haiti (Active war, escalating); Infrastructure & domain sabotage (Escalating, escalating); Iran internal stability (Escalating, escalating); Iran nuclear program (Escalating, escalating); Lebanon & Hezbollah (Active war, stable); Myanmar civil war (Active war, escalating); Nigeria & Lake Chad (Escalating, escalating); Nuclear weapons & arms control (Tense/Stable, escalating); Russian hybrid operations in Europe (Escalating, escalating); Russia–NATO frontier (Escalating, escalating); Somalia (Escalating, escalating); South Sudan (Active war, stable); State cyber operations (Escalating, escalating)
3	Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war (Tense/Stable, stable); Belarus (Watch, escalating); Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America (Escalating, stable); Disinformation & election interference (Escalating, escalating); Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia (Escalating, escalating); Global institutions & diplomacy (Watch, stable); Gulf states & Turkey (Tense/Stable, escalating); India–Pakistan & China–India (Tense/Stable, stable); Iraq (Tense/Stable, escalating); Israel–Gaza (Tense/Stable, stable); Libya (Tense/Stable, easing); Mexico & cartels (Escalating, escalating); Moldova & Transnistria (Tense/Stable, escalating); Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa (Escalating, escalating); North Korea (Tense/Stable, stable); Private military companies & proxies (Escalating, escalating); Sanctions & evasion (Escalating, escalating); South & East China Sea (Escalating, escalating); Syria transition (Tense/Stable, easing); Taiwan Strait (Tense/Stable, stable); Terrorism (Tense/Stable, stable); US posture in the hemisphere (Escalating, escalating); Venezuela (Tense/Stable, stable); West Bank (Escalating, escalating)
2	Brazil & Southern Cone (Watch, escalating); Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar) (Watch, stable); Japan, South Korea & Pacific (Watch, stable); Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania (Watch, escalating); South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) (Tense/Stable, stable); Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia (Watch, stable); US–China relations (De-escalating, easing); Western Balkans (Tense/Stable, escalating)

Dates in the next 30 days

2026-09-13: BRICS leaders' declaration expected, New Delhi (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-13: BRICS summit in New Delhi ends (India–Pakistan & China–India)
2026-09-13: Sweden general election (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-13: Sweden general election (Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-14: GCC, Iraqi and Iranian foreign ministers meet in Salalah, Oman on Hormuz (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-14: Salalah meeting of GCC, Iraqi and Iranian foreign ministers (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-14: Week the US House may take up the Graham sanctions bill (contested; reported stalled to November) (Russia–Ukraine war)
2026-09-15: Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the peace treaty (unconfirmed) (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
2026-09-15: Belarusian House of Representatives session opens (Belarus)
2026-09-15: US drug-certification determination (approximate) (Colombia)
2026-09-15: US drug-certification memo (approximate) (Mexico & cartels)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election begins (three days of voting) (State cyber operations)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-20: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, Germany (Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (North Korea)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (South & East China Sea)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (Taiwan Strait)
2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit, Washington (US–China relations)
2026-09-27: French Senate election (Russia–NATO frontier)
2026-09-27: Panel of Experts expiry and 90-day 1737 Committee briefing (Iran nuclear program)
2026-09-27: UN Iran Panel of Experts mandate lapses (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-29: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
2026-09-29: US bans on Canadian dairy, motorcycles and alcohol take effect (US posture in the hemisphere)
2026-09-30: Approval window for the election deal closes (approximate) (Libya)
2026-09-30: Coalition exit and militia disarmament deadline (Iraq)
2026-09-30: Date Iraqi militias have framed as a test of US and coalition commitments on disarmament (Private military companies & proxies)
2026-09-30: Tulkarm and Nur Shams camp closure orders lapse or renew (West Bank)
2026-09-30: UN Security Council vote on re-authorising the Gang Suppression Force (Haiti)
2026-09-30: UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate) (Syria transition)
2026-10-01: PKK camp disarmament deadline (Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-10-01: PKK camp disarmament deadline under the Iraq-KRG-Turkey mechanism (Iraq)
2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Russian hybrid operations in Europe)
2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Western Balkans)
2026-10-04: Brazil first round (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-10-04: Brazil first-round presidential election (Brazil & Southern Cone)
2026-10-09: Darfur sanctions rollover expires (approximately Oct 9-12) (Sudan civil war)

Morning note, 12 September 2026

2026-09-12T11:13:09Z

Overnight movers

Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (threat 5): The Houthis were reported to have completed their seizure of Yemen's western coast and taken a further strategic Red Sea island, while Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces said they struck Houthi positions in a seized Red Sea port city. China Military Online, The Times of Israel — no listed indicator.

Sudan civil war (threat 5): The UN Security Council was reported to have approved a technical one-month rollover of the partial Sudan arms embargo and sanctions regime rather than a substantive renewal. Al Jazeera, The Eastleigh Voice — matches watch indicator: The October UNSC embargo vote and a Russian veto.

Russia–Ukraine war (threat 5): A Ukrainian drone was reported to have struck a tanker described by Kyiv as a Russian shadow-fleet vessel off Sochi, evading helicopter fire. The New Voice of Ukraine, Caliber.Az — no listed indicator.

Lebanon & Hezbollah (threat 4): The Israel–Lebanon direct talks in Rome were reported postponed to October as explosions continued in southern Lebanon. Al Jazeera, The Arab Weekly — no listed indicator.

Colombia (threat 4): Bogota was reported to have ordered the restart of aerial spraying of coca crops, days after President De la Espriella announced the dismantling of all peace talks with armed groups. The New York Times, ColombiaOne — no listed indicator.

Myanmar civil war (threat 4): The Arakan Army was reported to have captured three outposts as the junta's border offensive triggered clashes, and five military personnel including a colonel were reported killed in an attack on Tada-U air base. Burma News International, Narinjara — no listed indicator.

Iraq (threat 3): Baghdad was reported to be investigating the drone attack on the Saudi East–West pipeline launched from Iraqi soil and to have sacked the Maysan commander, amid accusations against Iran-backed militias. India Today, AP News — matches watch indicator: Iranian or Iraqi-launched missiles and drones transiting toward Saudi Arabia.

North Korea (threat 3): North Korea was reported to have fired several short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea a day after the US–South Korea–Japan Freedom Edge drills ended. Kyodo News, Caliber.Az — no listed indicator.

Dates in the next 7 days

2026-09-13: BRICS leaders' declaration expected, New Delhi (Global institutions & diplomacy)
2026-09-13: BRICS summit in New Delhi ends (India–Pakistan & China–India)
2026-09-13: Sweden general election (Disinformation & election interference; Infrastructure & domain sabotage)
2026-09-14: GCC, Iraqi and Iranian foreign ministers meet in Salalah, Oman on Hormuz (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war); Gulf states & Turkey)
2026-09-14: Week the US House may take up the Graham sanctions bill (contested; reported stalled to November) (Russia–Ukraine war)
2026-09-15: Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the peace treaty (unconfirmed) (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
2026-09-15: Belarusian House of Representatives session opens (Belarus)
2026-09-15: US drug-certification memo (approximate) (Mexico & cartels; Colombia)
2026-09-17: US sanctions on ICC officials take effect (Sanctions & evasion)
2026-09-18: IRGC mobilisation exercises (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
2026-09-18: Russia State Duma election, three days of voting (Disinformation & election interference)
2026-09-18: Russian State Duma election, voting through Sept 20 (Russia–Ukraine war; State cyber operations)

Baseline assessment, 12 September 2026

2026-09-12T07:48:02Z

The picture in ten lines

Two interstate wars sit at level 5. Russia-Ukraine is in its fifth year with a static front and escalating deep strikes (Ukraine hit gas plants 2,800 km inside Russia this week) and a real risk of Russian mobilization after the Sept 18-20 Duma vote. The US-Israeli war with Iran is in its seventh month: the Strait of Hormuz is contested, CENTCOM sank ten Iranian tankers this week, Iran fired cluster-warhead missiles at a US base in Jordan, and Brent closed above 101 dollars.
The Iran war has spread. The Houthis seized the islands at Bab el-Mandeb and are at war with Saudi Arabia; drones launched from Iraq shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline; Iraqi militias face a Sept 30 disarmament deadline that Badr says would mean civil war; every Gulf state has been struck; Israel occupies about a fifth of Lebanon.
Africa carries two more level-5 wars. Sudan's partition is hardening under an RSF drone campaign, with up to 2,000 ex-Colombian soldiers in RSF service per the UN and a Security Council deadlocked by Russia. In the central Sahel JNIM is strangling Bamako with a fuel blockade, and Russia's Africa Corps crushed a mutiny in Niamey on Aug 29-30, its first defence of a Sahel regime against an internal challenge.
Russia's pressure on NATO is the most dangerous grey-zone flashpoint. Airspace violations are routine, the Kremlin issued an explicit nuclear threat to Lithuania on Sept 11, sabotage of Europe's defence industry is near-weekly, and Russian submarines rehearsed a traceless cable-cutting operation near Svalbard. The CIA director reportedly flew to Moscow to warn against testing the alliance.
The Indo-Pacific is kinetically quieter but structurally worse. PLA sorties near Taiwan are at their lowest since 2024 while coast-guard coercion sets records at Scarborough and near Taiwan; Washington called Taiwan arms sales 'in abeyance', cut a Korea exercise unilaterally, and faces a PLA high command hollowed by purges. The Sept 24 Trump-Xi summit is the hinge.
The Western Hemisphere has become a theatre. The US co-manages post-Maduro Venezuela through a 100-year oil concession with a Pentagon stake, runs a counter-cartel bloc from Colombia to Chile, sinks boats off Ecuador, blockades Cuba's fuel supply, hints at unilateral action in Mexico, and is in a tariff war with Canada laced with annexation rhetoric.
Level 4 is crowded. Haiti (gangs hold 85 percent of the capital; the UN force at a fifth of its strength faces a Sept 30 renewal), Colombia (peace architecture dismantled, ELN escalating), Myanmar (the junta's largest Rakhine offensive stalled), eastern DRC, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan, Nigeria and the Afghanistan-Pakistan war.
Arms control is gone. New START expired in February with nothing in its place; about 450 kg of Iranian highly enriched uranium is unaccounted for and inspectors are blocked; North Korea has roughly 60 warheads, troops in Russia and a new road bridge to it.
The hybrid domain is active. Chinese groups chained three zero-days in September; the SVR used frontier AI in espionage against Ukraine's drone industry; GPS is denied over Poland on most days; five elections in twelve weeks face AI-scaled Russian influence operations while US federal election defences are hollowed out.
Institutions are thinner. The UN Secretariat budget is down 20 percent with US arrears, nine ICC judges are under US sanctions, and great-power dealing has moved to leader summits: BRICS in New Delhi this weekend, Trump-Xi on Sept 24, a possible Putin-Xi-Trump trilateral at APEC in November, and a G20 in Miami in December.

Threat ladder

Level	Flashpoints (status, 30-day trend)
5	Russia–Ukraine war (Active war, escalating); Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (Active war, escalating); Sudan civil war (Active war, escalating); US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (Active war, escalating)
4	Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war (Active war, stable); Colombia (Escalating, escalating); Eastern DRC & Rwanda (Active war, stable); Ethiopia & Eritrea (Escalating, escalating); Haiti (Active war, escalating); Infrastructure & domain sabotage (Escalating, escalating); Iran internal stability (Escalating, escalating); Iran nuclear program (Escalating, escalating); Lebanon & Hezbollah (Active war, stable); Myanmar civil war (Active war, escalating); Nigeria & Lake Chad (Escalating, escalating); Nuclear weapons & arms control (Tense/Stable, stable); Russian hybrid operations in Europe (Escalating, escalating); Russia–NATO frontier (Escalating, escalating); Somalia (Escalating, escalating); South Sudan (Active war, stable); State cyber operations (Escalating, escalating); Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (Escalating, escalating)
3	Belarus (Watch, escalating); Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America (Escalating, stable); Disinformation & election interference (Escalating, escalating); Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia (Escalating, escalating); Global institutions & diplomacy (Watch, stable); Gulf states & Turkey (Tense/Stable, escalating); India–Pakistan & China–India (Tense/Stable, escalating); Iraq (Tense/Stable, escalating); Israel–Gaza (Tense/Stable, stable); Libya (Tense/Stable, easing); Mexico & cartels (Escalating, escalating); Moldova & Transnistria (Tense/Stable, escalating); Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa (Escalating, escalating); North Korea (Tense/Stable, stable); Private military companies & proxies (Escalating, escalating); Sanctions & evasion (Escalating, escalating); South & East China Sea (Escalating, escalating); Syria transition (Tense/Stable, easing); Taiwan Strait (Tense/Stable, stable); Terrorism (Tense/Stable, stable); US posture in the hemisphere (Escalating, escalating); Venezuela (Tense/Stable, stable); West Bank (Escalating, escalating)
2	Brazil & Southern Cone (Watch, escalating); Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar) (Watch, stable); Japan, South Korea & Pacific (Watch, stable); Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania (Watch, escalating); South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) (Tense/Stable, stable); Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia (Watch, stable); US–China relations (De-escalating, easing); Western Balkans (Tense/Stable, escalating)

Escalating at level 4 or above

Russia–Ukraine war (level 5): Fifth year of full-scale war.
Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (level 5): JNIM and the Tuareg FLA can strike all three AES capitals: their April 25 offensive on Bamako and Kati killed Mali's defence minister, and JNIM's fuel blockade of Bamako, reimposed April 28, has destroyed more than 300 tankers.
Sudan civil war (level 5): Fourth year of the SAF-RSF war with a hardening east-west partition: the RSF holds Darfur (El Fasher fell in Oct 2025) and runs a parallel 'Tasis' government in Nyala, while the SAF holds the initiative in Kordofan and El Obeid is under partial RSF siege.
US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (level 5): Seventh month of the US-Israeli war with Iran that began Feb 28 (Ali Khamenei killed; Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded and has not appeared in public).
Colombia (level 4): President De la Espriella (in office since Aug 7) has dismantled the peace architecture, ended Petro-era talks, resumed airstrikes (three minors killed in Guaviare), lifted the civilian gun-permit suspension and joined the US-led Shield of the Americas; the ELN answered with a drone attack that killed three soldiers in Ocana and car bombs.
Ethiopia & Eritrea (level 4): First federal-TDF combat in western Tigray since the Pretoria deal (Shererina, Aug 1-3, with refugees fleeing into Sudan), a formalized TPLF-Fano-OLA coalition called Tsimdo, and open accusations that Eritrea is arming them while Asmara accuses Addis of coveting Assab.
Haiti (level 4): Gangs hold about 85 percent of Port-au-Prince and are expanding into Artibonite, Centre and Kenscoff, where a raid on Aug 23 killed 47 and abducted more than 50.
Infrastructure & domain sabotage (level 4): Reuters revealed on Sept 10 that Russian GUGI submarines rehearsed a traceless cut of the SvalSat cables near Svalbard in spring 2026, confronted by UK, Norwegian and US forces; Poland reported full-scale GPS disruption on 63 percent of days in early August from Kaliningrad's 36-antenna spoofing array; a Russian Il-20 violated Finnish airspace on Aug 20; at least 11 Baltic cables were damaged from 2023 to 2025..
Iran internal stability (level 4): The regime is pre-positioning for unrest: Basij and police special units deployed to six cities on Sept 7 as gasoline prices rose, with the rial near 2.2 million to the dollar, inflation above 80 percent and about two months of gasoline stocks.
Iran nuclear program (level 4): The IAEA has lost continuity of knowledge over roughly 450 kg of highly enriched uranium since inspectors left after the June 2025 strikes; it has never inspected Pickaxe Mountain, where centrifuges may have moved, and reported this week that cameras are disabled and inspectors blocked.
Myanmar civil war (level 4): The junta, now a nominal civilian government under President Min Aung Hlaing after a partial election, launched Operation 4926 on Sept 4, its largest Rakhine offensive in years on five fronts including Kyaukphyu; the Arakan Army reported it stalled within a week.
Nigeria & Lake Chad (level 4): Mass abductions across the north (about 600 worshippers taken from a mosque in Niger State on Aug 22, 2,000 fleeing to Benin), house-to-house killings in Plateau, and a reported secret three-month truce between the government and Boko Haram's JAS faction with an alleged 5 billion naira payment, all as the 2027 campaign opens.
Russian hybrid operations in Europe (level 4): Russia-linked sabotage against Europe's defence industry is now near-weekly: fires at Milrem in Tallinn, KNDS in Italy, EMCO in Bulgaria and Polish defence sites, a foiled arson at a Ukrainian-owned drone maker in Slovakia, and incendiaries at Rohde and Schwarz in Munich, all since mid-August.
Russia–NATO frontier (level 4): Russian drone and missile violations of NATO airspace are routine on the eastern flank (Romania logged 23 in 2026 by mid-August with four shootdowns), the Kremlin issued an explicit nuclear threat to Lithuania over its plan to lift the constitutional ban on foreign bases and nuclear weapons, and CIA Director Ratcliffe reportedly flew to Moscow in late August to warn against attacking or testing NATO.
Somalia (level 4): Federal forces are fighting member-state militias (Laftagareen loyalists assaulted Baidoa three times; Puntland seized a federal camp at Galkayo) while al-Shabaab's Mogadishu attack tempo hit its highest since January and AUSSOM's budget is largely unfunded.
State cyber operations (level 4): Chinese groups chained three zero-days against US NGOs, mining and aerospace firms from Aug 28; Salt Typhoon's telecom compromise is 'still ongoing' per the FBI while CISA sheds staff; the SVR's Midnight Blizzard used frontier AI to adapt malware against more than 20 defence targets; the US posted a 10 million dollar reward for the alleged head of IRGC cyber command; and OFAC designated Xinbi Guarantee, a 24 billion dollar laundering hub for North Korean heists..
Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (level 4): The Houthis entered the Iran war in July after an IRGC airlift to Sanaa, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi shipping and are now fighting Saudi Arabia directly: this week they seized Mocha port, Perim Island and the Hanish islands at Bab el-Mandeb (ISW: an 'Axis of Resistance-controlled' strait) and struck Abha, Jizan and Najran.

Dates ahead (next 120 days)

Date	Event	Flashpoint
2026-09-13	BRICS summit in New Delhi ends	India–Pakistan & China–India
2026-09-13	Sweden general election	Disinformation & election interference
2026-09-14	Next Rome round (week of)	Lebanon & Hezbollah
2026-09-14	Week the House may take up the Graham sanctions bill (contested; Bloomberg says stalled to November)	Russia–Ukraine war
2026-09-15	Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the peace treaty (unconfirmed)	South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)
2026-09-15	Belarusian House of Representatives session opens	Belarus
2026-09-15	US drug certification memo (approximate)	Mexico & cartels
2026-09-15	US drug-certification determination (approximate)	Colombia
2026-09-17	US sanctions on ICC officials take effect	Sanctions & evasion
2026-09-18	Bolivia's 90-day emergency lapses (approximate)	Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia
2026-09-18	IRGC mobilisation exercises	US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war)
2026-09-18	Russia Duma election	Disinformation & election interference
2026-09-18	Russian State Duma election (through Sept 20)	Russia–Ukraine war
2026-09-22	UNGA General Debate opens	Global institutions & diplomacy
2026-09-22	UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian speak	US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war)
2026-09-22	UNGA high-level week	Gulf states & Turkey
2026-09-24	Trump-Xi summit	Global institutions & diplomacy
2026-09-24	Trump-Xi summit in Washington	Taiwan Strait
2026-09-24	Trump-Xi summit, Washington	US–China relations
2026-09-27	French Senate election	Russia–NATO frontier
2026-09-27	Panel of Experts expiry and 90-day 1737 Committee briefing	Iran nuclear program
2026-09-27	UN Iran Panel of Experts mandate lapses	US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war)
2026-09-29	International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons	Nuclear weapons & arms control
2026-09-29	US bans on Canadian dairy, motorcycles and alcohol take effect	US posture in the hemisphere
2026-09-30	Approval window for the election deal (approximate)	Libya
2026-09-30	Camp closure orders lapse or renew	West Bank
2026-09-30	Coalition exit and militia disarmament deadline	Iraq
2026-09-30	UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate)	Syria transition
2026-09-30	UNSC vote on the Gang Suppression Force	Haiti
2026-10	ASEAN summit season (date unverified)	Myanmar civil war
2026-10	Mondlane trial (Oct-Nov, unconfirmed)	Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa
2026-10	NATO defence ministers meeting	Russia–NATO frontier
2026-10	Parliament convenes and reappoints Abiy	Ethiopia & Eritrea
2026-10	UNGA vote on the Cuba embargo (late Oct or Nov)	Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America
2026-10	US-DRC-Rwanda trilateral	Eastern DRC & Rwanda
2026-10-01	PKK camp disarmament deadline	Gulf states & Turkey
2026-10-01	PKK camp disarmament deadline under the Iraq-KRG-Turkey mechanism	Iraq
2026-10-04	Bosnia and Herzegovina general election	Western Balkans
2026-10-04	Bosnia general election	Russian hybrid operations in Europe
2026-10-04	Brazil first round	Brazil & Southern Cone
2026-10-09	Darfur sanctions rollover expires (approximately Oct 9-12)	Sudan civil war
2026-10-25	Brazil run-off	Brazil & Southern Cone
2026-10-25	Serbia parliamentary election	Western Balkans
2026-10-25	Serbia snap parliamentary election	Russian hybrid operations in Europe
2026-10-27	Israel election	Disinformation & election interference
2026-10-27	Israeli Knesset election	Israel–Gaza
2026-10-27	Israeli election	Lebanon & Hezbollah
2026-11	Next IAEA quarterly Iran report (approximate)	Iran nuclear program
2026-11	Peru's prison emergency lapses	Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia
2026-11	Taiwan local elections and nuclear referendum	Taiwan Strait
2026-11-03	US midterm elections	US posture in the hemisphere
2026-11-03	US midterms	Disinformation & election interference
2026-11-09	Panel of Experts mandate expires	Sudan civil war
2026-11-10	Trade truce expiry	US–China relations
2026-11-15	Surrender ultimatum lapses (approximate)	Colombia
2026-11-18	APEC leaders' meeting, Shenzhen	US–China relations
2026-11-18	APEC leaders, Shenzhen	Global institutions & diplomacy
2026-11-28	Palestinian legislative election	West Bank
2026-11-28	Scheduled Palestinian legislative election (postponement likely)	Israel–Gaza
2026-12	Japan security strategy revision due	Japan, South Korea & Pacific
2026-12	Japan's revised security documents	South & East China Sea
2026-12	MONUSCO mandate renewal	Eastern DRC & Rwanda
2026-12	Possible Trump-Kim meeting 'later this year' (unscheduled)	North Korea
2026-12-06	Guinea-Bissau election	Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar)
2026-12-13	Elections	Haiti
2026-12-14	G20 summit, Miami	Global institutions & diplomacy
2026-12-22	South Sudan election	South Sudan
2026-12-31	Next UN Secretary-General appointed by	Global institutions & diplomacy
2026-12-31	USMCA interim-arrangement target	Mexico & cartels
2027-01	Nicaragua ratifies the constitutional reform	Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America
2027-01	Pentagon Europe force-posture review due	Russia–NATO frontier
2027-01-01	EU ban on LNG terminal services for Russian operators	Sanctions & evasion
TBD	ICJ Essequibo judgment	Venezuela
TBD	Second round of government-opposition talks	Venezuela

Actors of concern (level 4 and 5)

Actor	Level	Assessment
Houthis (Ansar Allah)	5	Seized Mocha, Perim and the Hanish islands this week, strikes Saudi cities and oil sites, and blockades Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.
Iran (IRGC / Supreme Leader)	5	IRGC Navy and Aerospace Force strike US warships, tankers and Gulf bases daily; Mojtaba Khamenei rules by written order and has not appeared since Feb 28; the regime is pre-positioning security forces for unrest as the rial collapses.
JNIM (al-Qaeda Sahel)	5	Maintains the Bamako fuel blockade, struck Bamako and Kati in April, hit Niamey airport in June and is stepping up incursions into Benin.
Rapid Support Forces (Hemedti)	5	Runs the parallel Tasis government, strikes courthouses, kindergartens and hospitals with drones, holds El Obeid under partial siege, and employs up to 2,000 ex-Colombian soldiers per the UN.
Russia (Putin / Kremlin)	5	The Kremlin holds maximalist demands on all four annexed oblasts with US envoys, issued a nuclear threat to Lithuania on Sept 11, runs near-weekly sabotage in Europe, rehearsed covert cable-cutting near Svalbard, and may mobilize 300,000 to 500,000 after the Duma vote.
Chinese state hackers (Salt/Volt Typhoon)	4	TA412/APT31 and three clusters chained three zero-days against US NGOs, mining and aerospace firms from Aug 28; the Salt Typhoon telecom compromise is still ongoing per the FBI.
ELN (Colombia)	4	A drone attack killed three soldiers in Ocana on Sept 3; car bombs on Aug 1 and Sept 1; escalating against Colombia's new hard-line government.
Iraqi Shia militias (Kataib Hezbollah etc.)	4	Badr warns of civil war if disarmed by the Sept 30 deadline; Iraqi-launched drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline on Sept 10; OFAC designated commanders.
Myanmar junta (Min Aung Hlaing)	4	Launched Operation 4926, the largest Rakhine offensive in years, on Sept 4; it stalled within a week.
Russia's Africa Corps / Wagner	4	Crushed the Niamey mutiny on Aug 29-30, deployed to Togo, abandoned Kidal, and is documented by HRW killing nine civilians in Mali.
Russian state hackers (GRU / Sandworm / APT28)	4	The SVR's Midnight Blizzard used frontier AI to adapt malware against Ukrainian drone makers; GRU units and CARR were sanctioned by the EU and UK in July for sabotage of European grids and rail.
Sudanese Armed Forces (Burhan)	4	Holds the ground initiative in Kordofan, rejects a nationwide arms embargo and negotiation with the RSF, and is blamed by Chad for a cross-border strike.
Viv Ansanm (Haiti gang coalition)	4	The Kenscoff raid on Aug 23 killed 47 and abducted more than 50; the coalition controls about 85 percent of Port-au-Prince.
al-Shabaab	4	Mogadishu attack tempo at its highest since January; exploiting the federal-state war around Baidoa.

Region notes

Europe and Russia. The war's centre of gravity has shifted to long-range strike: Ukraine is attriting refineries, gas plants and the Black Sea Fleet while Russia hits Kyiv and Odesa daily; ISW judges Russia cannot take the rest of Donetsk before 2032 at current rates. The peace track is alive but empty after the Witkoff-Kushner shuttle. Watch the Duma vote for mobilization, the House for the Graham sanctions bill, Lithuania's constitutional vote, and October's elections in Bosnia and Serbia. Belarus is running readiness checks 'up to mobilization' with Oreshnik missiles in country.

Middle East. Seven months into the Iran war, the escalation ladder runs through Hormuz shipping and US bases; Israel's red line is an Iranian strike on Israel proper, which would trigger strikes on Iranian energy. Iran is pre-positioning security forces for unrest with the rial near 2.2 million to the dollar and a supreme leader nobody has seen since February. Gaza holds a fragile 'neither war nor peace' ceasefire frozen by Israel's Oct 27 election; the West Bank is being annexed in practice. Three deadlines cluster on Sept 27 to Oct 1: the UN Iran panel lapses, Iraq's coalition exit and militia disarmament, and the PKK camp deadline.

Indo-Pacific and South Asia. Beijing has swapped sorties for coast-guard 'law enforcement' that rehearses blockade; Manila and Beijing are trading public insults after the Seoul Defense Dialogue. North Korea launches on schedule and monetizes its Russia ties. Pakistan is the region's escalation driver (deadliest month since 2023, a two-front insurgency, an intermittent war with Afghanistan); India-Pakistan is quiet but the Indus treaty stays suspended. Myanmar's junta just failed its biggest offensive in years.

Africa. Sudan and the Sahel are the continent's level-5 wars, and both are internationalized: Gulf, Colombian and Russian actors are decisive on the ground while the Security Council splits. The Horn is heading the wrong way (Ethiopia-Eritrea war risk, Somalia's federal-state fighting, South Sudan's collapsed deal), eastern DRC is stalemated with a record Ebola outbreak inside the war zone, and Nigeria's abductions are at industrial scale. Libya is the one improving file.

Americas. The organizing fact is a US 'Shield of the Americas' posture: co-management of Venezuela, a militarized Colombia, boat sinkings off Ecuador, a Cuban fuel blockade and explicit threats toward Mexico, alongside a trade war with Canada. Haiti is the humanitarian emergency and the Sept 30 UN vote is its hinge. Brazil's Oct 4 election is a tie under US tariff pressure.

Transnational. Cyber (level 4), infrastructure sabotage (4) and the nuclear file (4) are the domains to watch; sanctions enforcement is intensifying but circumvention through Turkey, the UAE, China and crypto is robust; election-interference risk peaks between Sweden's vote on Sept 13 and the US midterms on Nov 3.

Confidence and gaps

Independently spot-checked on Sept 12: the ISW Iran Update of Sept 11 (Houthi seizures, Hormuz flows, Iraqi disarmament), Al Jazeera's Sept 1 report on the Venezuela oil concession and Maduro's January capture, and the ISW Ukraine assessment of Sept 11 (static front, deep strikes). All matched the reports.
Contested figures. Hormuz throughput (about 2 million b/d per Reuters vs 10 to 17 million per ISW and the US Energy Department, different bases); the toll of Iran's January crackdown (3,117 to 36,500); Sudan's displacement totals (6 million IDPs plus 4.5 million refugees vs 8.6 million 'fled'); Iran-war casualty totals; the date of Ali Khamenei's death (Feb 28 vs Mar 2).
Single-sourced items carried with caveats. Hungary expelling ten Russian diplomats; Romania detaining a Russian saboteur; Andy Burnham as UK prime minister; Armenia's Sept 15 court date; the Nigeria-JAS secret truce and payment; Ethiopia's Tsimdo coalition date; the Niassa lodge raid; Pakistan's August defence pact with Turkey and Saudi Arabia; the CIA-facilitated killing in Mexico; a Hegseth defence pact with Colombia; Houthi-Iraqi joint operations; the Kremlin's APEC trilateral claim.
Not verified in the window (treat as 'no verified change', not 'quiet'). Afghanistan-Pakistan fighting after Aug 7; any South China Sea kinetic incident after July 24; Thailand-Cambodia September incidents; IAEA Board dates and outcomes; EU and UK sanctions designations in the window; any Israeli or Iranian strike on the other's territory after July 19; Houthi attacks on Israel after June; Alawite-coast violence in Syria; Tripoli militia clashes; El Salvador and Greenland and Panama in-window events; drone-at-airport incidents; nuclear test-preparation signals.