Weekly review
21 September 2026
The weekly research review re-read the reporting on the entries on the board and reassessed them. Threat levels run from 1 (low) to 5 (severe); a review moves a level at most one step unless a war starts or ends, a ceasefire takes hold, a coup succeeds or a state collapses. How the board works.
Executive summary
- Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war (afghanistan) rises from 3 to 4, status Tense/Stable to Escalating, trend Stable to Escalating. On Sept 18 a car bomb and gun assault on the police lines in Kohat, Pakistan, killed at least 31 people; a TTP-linked group claimed it. Early in the morning of Sept 21 Pakistan carried out airstrikes in Kunar and Paktika inside Afghanistan, and the Taliban vowed to retaliate. This is the first cross-border strike exchange since the fighting of February to July.
- Four entries eased without a level change. US posture in the hemisphere (us-hemisphere) moves from Escalating to Tense/Stable, trend Stable, after the US, Denmark and Greenland reached a security agreement on Sept 18 that grants US basing and access without any transfer of sovereignty; the US–Canada trade dispute keeps it at 3. Sanctions & evasion (sanctions) moves to Tense/Stable and Stable because US policy went both ways: Belarus freed 25 prisoners on Sept 16 in exchange for sanctions relief and there were Russia- and Belarus-related delistings, while Iran designations continued. Belarus (belarus) moves to a Stable trend because its Sept 15–18 border exercise stayed below international notification thresholds and ended on schedule, alongside the prisoner deal. Moldova & Transnistria (moldova) moves to a Stable trend because drone incursions stayed minor and caused no casualties.
- Two new entries. Turkey–PKK peace process (turkey-kurdish-process) enters at 2, Tense/Stable, Stable. There was no violence, but the process is under strain: Ankara named Öcalan to the disarmament panel without releasing him, and a senior PKK figure said on Sept 18 the group will not disarm unless he is freed. The Oct 1 evacuation of the Qandil camps is the next test. Horn of Africa sea access and port rivalry (horn-sea-access) enters at 3, Tense/Stable, Escalating. The Houthis completed their hold on Yemen's Red Sea coast on Sept 11, the US lifted its sanctions on Eritrea on Sept 19 citing Red Sea interests, and Egypt and Italy are moving naval and security assets into the area.
- The Saudi Arabia–Houthi war reached Riyadh. On Sept 19 a Houthi ballistic missile and drones targeted the Saudi capital for the first time since July, along with Yanbu, Taif, Bisha and Farasan; Saudi Arabia says all were intercepted. Pakistan and Turkey pledged to defend Saudi Arabia, but no deployments have been confirmed. The Saudi Arabia–Houthi war and Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea entries stay at 5.
- The Iran war is unresolved, and the nuclear track has hardened. On Sept 19 Iran sent the US, through Qatar, its conditions for ending the war. Its parliament speaker said the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until they are met, and on Sept 21 Iran's military said the US was preparing to resume strikes. On Sept 20 lawmakers submitted a fast-tracked bill to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The bill still needs the speaker's approval and no formal withdrawal notice has been given, so Iran nuclear program stays at 4.
- The Russia–Ukraine war stays at 5. On Sept 19–20 Ukraine carried out what ISW calls its largest combined strike of the war on Moscow Oblast, damaging a major Moscow refinery. On Sept 16 the US House passed the Graham sanctions bill, which authorises tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas and now goes to the President.
- Other notable developments with no level change. On Sept 15 an Indian destroyer and a Pakistani patrol vessel collided in the Arabian Sea, the first direct military contact between the two since May 2025; both sides summoned diplomats (India–Pakistan stays at 3). A Chinese coast guard ship rammed a Philippine government vessel off Palawan on Sept 18. North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles on Sept 20.
- Reported, not established: JNIM's claim that its Sept 10 attack in central Mali killed 150 soldiers (the army gives no figure); the intensified federal–Tigrayan fighting of Sept 16–18 (one outlet); the Arakan Army's capture of four junta positions near Sittwe (one outlet); the Houthi claims of hits on Aramco at Yanbu (denied by Saudi Arabia); a reported Houthi assurance to US officials that only Saudi-linked ships will be targeted; the number of drones in the Moscow strike and the Kohat and Kunar/Paktika casualty figures (contested); and the reported US plan for entity-wide sanctions on the International Criminal Court (anonymous officials).
- Research limits: this review came six days after the previous one, so many entries had little new. Western Balkans, Libya, the coup-belt watch item, Terrorism, and the actors M23, CJNG, Tren de Aragua, China and Russia state cyber units and the Matryoshka network had no verified development in the window; their dates moved, but their recent events are carried over from the previous review, not new findings. Iran internal stability and Iraq rest on thin evidence and were kept at their previous levels. Some outlets (Crisis Group, several Myanmar outlets) could not be read.
Changes in threat, status or trend
| Entry | Region | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war | Indo-Pacific & South Asia | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable | 4 / Escalating / Escalating |
| Belarus | Europe & Russia | 3 / Watch / Escalating | 3 / Watch / Stable |
| Horn of Africa sea access and port rivalry | Africa | new entry | 3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating |
| Moldova & Transnistria | Europe & Russia | 3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable |
| Sanctions & evasion | Transnational & Hybrid | 3 / Escalating / Escalating | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable |
| US posture in the hemisphere | Americas | 3 / Escalating / Escalating | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable |
| Turkey–PKK peace process | Middle East | new entry | 2 / Tense/Stable / Stable |
New entries this week
- Turkey–PKK peace process (turkey-kurdish-process, flashpoint, Middle East): 2 / Tense/Stable / Stable
- Horn of Africa sea access and port rivalry (horn-sea-access, flashpoint, Africa): 3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating
Removed this week
none
Threat ladder on 21 September 2026
| Level | Flashpoints (status, trend) |
|---|---|
| 5 | Russia–Ukraine war (Active war, escalating); Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (Active war, escalating); Saudi Arabia–Houthi war (Active war, escalating); Sudan civil war (Active war, escalating); US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (Active war, escalating); Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (Active war, escalating) |
| 4 | Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war (Escalating, escalating); Colombia (Escalating, escalating); Eastern DRC & Rwanda (Active war, stable); Ethiopia & Eritrea (Escalating, escalating); Gulf states & Turkey (Escalating, escalating); Haiti (Active war, escalating); Infrastructure & domain sabotage (Escalating, escalating); Iran internal stability (Escalating, escalating); Iran nuclear program (Escalating, escalating); Iraq (Escalating, escalating); Lebanon & Hezbollah (Active war, stable); Myanmar civil war (Active war, escalating); Nigeria & Lake Chad (Escalating, escalating); Nuclear weapons & arms control (Tense/Stable, escalating); Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA) (Active war, escalating); Private military companies & proxies (Escalating, escalating); Russian hybrid operations in Europe (Escalating, escalating); Russia–NATO frontier (Escalating, escalating); Somalia (Escalating, escalating); South Sudan (Active war, stable); State cyber operations (Escalating, escalating) |
| 3 | Belarus (Watch, stable); Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America (Escalating, stable); Disinformation & election interference (Escalating, escalating); Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia (Escalating, escalating); Global institutions & diplomacy (Watch, stable); Horn of Africa sea access and port rivalry (Tense/Stable, escalating); India–Pakistan & China–India (Tense/Stable, stable); Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis (Escalating, stable); Israel–Gaza (Tense/Stable, stable); Libya (Tense/Stable, easing); Mexico & cartels (Escalating, escalating); Moldova & Transnistria (Tense/Stable, stable); Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa (Escalating, escalating); North Korea (Tense/Stable, stable); Sanctions & evasion (Tense/Stable, stable); South & East China Sea (Escalating, escalating); Syria transition (Tense/Stable, stable); Taiwan Strait (Tense/Stable, stable); Terrorism (Tense/Stable, stable); US posture in the hemisphere (Tense/Stable, stable); Venezuela (Tense/Stable, stable); West Bank (Escalating, escalating) |
| 2 | Brazil & Southern Cone (Watch, escalating); Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar) (Watch, stable); Japan, South Korea & Pacific (Watch, stable); Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania (Watch, escalating); South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) (Tense/Stable, stable); Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia (Watch, stable); Turkey–PKK peace process (Tense/Stable, stable); US–China relations (De-escalating, easing); Western Balkans (Tense/Stable, escalating) |
Dates in the next 30 days
- 2026-09-22: Trump expected to meet Delcy Rodriguez informally on the UN General Assembly sidelines in New York (reported) (Venezuela)
- 2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens (Global institutions & diplomacy)
- 2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Saudi, Yemeni and Iranian leaders speak (Saudi Arabia–Houthi war)
- 2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate opens; Yemen on the agenda (Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea)
- 2026-09-22: UNGA General Debate: Trump and Pezeshkian expected to speak (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
- 2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week (Gulf states & Turkey)
- 2026-09-22: UNGA high-level week; Iranian leadership speaks and diaspora protests are planned in New York (Iran internal stability)
- 2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (North Korea)
- 2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (South & East China Sea)
- 2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (Taiwan Strait)
- 2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit, Washington (Global institutions & diplomacy)
- 2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit, Washington (US–China relations)
- 2026-09-25: Official Russian State Duma election results due no earlier than this date (Russia–Ukraine war)
- 2026-09-25: Russian gas deliveries to Armenia are due to resume after pipeline maintenance (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
- 2026-09-26: FSB curfew and movement restrictions on the Russian side of the Narva border zone with Estonia due to end (Russia–NATO frontier)
- 2026-09-27: Panel of Experts expiry and 90-day 1737 Committee briefing (Iran nuclear program)
- 2026-09-27: UN Iran Panel of Experts mandate lapses (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
- 2026-09-27: Vucic says he will resign the Serbian presidency to lead his party's election campaign (Western Balkans)
- 2026-09-29: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
- 2026-09-29: US import bans on Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, whey and other goods take effect (US posture in the hemisphere)
- 2026-09-30: Approval window for the election deal closes (approximate) (Libya)
- 2026-09-30: Curfew in Guayas, Manabi, Los Rios and El Oro under Ecuador's Decree 498 due to end (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission (Iraq)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission in Iraq, originally also the militia disarmament deadline (Private military companies & proxies)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission in Iraq; Iraqi officials say it is not a disarmament deadline (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)
- 2026-09-30: Tulkarm and Nur Shams camp closure orders lapse or renew (West Bank)
- 2026-09-30: UN Security Council vote on re-authorising the Gang Suppression Force; current mandate expires (Haiti)
- 2026-09-30: UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate) (Syria transition)
- 2026-10-01: Expected evacuation of PKK camps in the Qandil mountains (Turkey–PKK peace process)
- 2026-10-01: PKK camp evacuation date under the Turkish peace process (Iraq)
- 2026-10-01: Point from which the Iraqi government says the weapons-monopoly plan begins to be implemented (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)
- 2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Russian hybrid operations in Europe)
- 2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Western Balkans)
- 2026-10-04: Brazil first round (Disinformation & election interference)
- 2026-10-04: Brazil first-round presidential election (Brazil & Southern Cone)
- 2026-10-09: Darfur sanctions rollover expires (approximately Oct 9-12) (Sudan civil war)
- 2026-10-13: Voter registration closes (Haiti)