Weekly review
28 September 2026
The weekly research review re-read the reporting on the entries on the board and reassessed them. Threat levels run from 1 (low) to 5 (severe); a review moves a level at most one step unless a war starts or ends, a ceasefire takes hold, a coup succeeds or a state collapses. How the board works.
Executive summary
- Ethiopia & Eritrea (ethiopia) rises from 4 to 5, and its status moves from Escalating to Active war. War resumed on Sept 23 when Tigrayan forces seized the Axum, Shire and Mekelle airports, a few days after seven armed groups announced a joint alliance against the government on Sept 21. By Sept 24 fighting had spread into Afar and Amhara, and the Tigrayan leadership called it "full war". The army reported retaking Sekota by Sept 27, and internet access was cut across the north. With fighting on several fronts and a risk of drawing in Eritrea, it now sits alongside the other level-5 wars.
- Horn of Africa sea access and port rivalry (horn-sea-access) rises from 3 to 4, and its status moves from Tense/Stable to Escalating. After the Tigray war resumed, Ethiopia's army chief accused Eritrea of funding the rebels. Eritrea denied it and said it fears an Ethiopian invasion to gain Red Sea access. The dispute has moved from rhetoric to a serious risk of war between the two states.
- South Sudan (south-sudan) stays at 4 and Active war, but its trend moves from Stable to Escalating. On Sept 22 President Kiir dissolved the unity government, the legislature and the state governments. He removed First Vice-President Machar and the other four vice-presidents and installed a caretaker administration, formally ending the 2018 power-sharing order.
- US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (israel-iran) stays at 5 and Active war, and its trend moves from Escalating to Stable. The renewed US strikes that Iran's military warned of on Sept 21 had not come by Sept 28. Iran offered a seven-day roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sept 25, and President Trump rejected it on Sept 26. At sea the pattern is attrition rather than a sharper escalation: the vessel Cape Dao was struck on Sept 23, and the IRGC claimed on Sept 27 that it had seized a US underwater drone, which the US denies. The strait stays closed and the blockade stays in force.
- Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis (iraq-militia-disarmament) stays at 3, and its status moves from Escalating to Tense/Stable. On Sept 22 Prime Minister al-Zaidi moved the disarmament deadline from Sept 30, 2026 to June 30, 2027, under a phased plan. That removes the near-term trigger date, but the hardline factions still refuse to disarm.
- Two trend changes at level 3. - Moldova & Transnistria (moldova) moves from Stable to Escalating. On Sept 24 four drones crossed northern Moldova during a Russian attack on Ukraine, and two carrying explosives detonated in Floresti and Soldanesti districts without casualties. President Sandu counts 39 airspace violations in 2026, against 17 in 2025. - Venezuela (venezuela) moves from Stable to Easing. President Trump met Delcy Rodríguez on Sept 22. The government-opposition talks agreed on Sept 25 to renew the Supreme Court, and 39 political prisoners were freed on Sept 27. The level stays at 3 because there is still no presidential election date and US strikes on boats continue.
- Biggest developments with no level change: Ukraine and the Gulf. - In the Russia–Ukraine war (ukraine-war, 5), President Zelensky reported more than 2,200 drones, 1,630 glide bombs and 38 missiles fired at Ukraine in the week to Sept 28. ISW assessed on Sept 26 that Moscow may be turning to a winter strike campaign to force a surrender. - In the Saudi Arabia–Houthi war (saudi-houthi, 5), the Houthis fired ballistic missile salvos at Riyadh, Taif and Yanbu on Sept 22 and Sept 24, and the Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted them. France announced troops and air defences for Yanbu on Sept 25. Yemen's government called a general mobilisation on Sept 26.
- Biggest developments with no level change: Asia. - In the South & East China Sea (south-china-sea, 3), a Chinese warship and 14 coast guard and militia vessels forced the Philippines to abandon a resupply run to Second Thomas Shoal on Sept 24, the first such block since 2024. It stays at 3 because no one was injured and there was no collision. - Pakistan struck 10 sites in Kandahar, Paktia and Khost on Sept 24, the worst Afghanistan–Pakistan (afghanistan, 4) fighting since February. - The Trump–Xi summit on Sept 24 extended the US–China trade truce only to Jan 10, 2027.
- Reported, not established: - The Ethiopian army's claim of 272 Tigrayan fighters killed is unverified. - Federal drone strikes on two schools in Alamata on Sept 22 that reportedly killed at least 14 rest on a single source. - Casualties on the Cape Dao are contested (one or two seafarers killed). - Pakistan's claims of Afghan drone and mortar attacks on Sept 23 and Sept 25 are denied by Kabul. - The Arakan Army's reported capture of outposts around Sittwe rests on one resistance-leaning source. - The toll of the Sept 27 market strike in Taiz, and who carried it out, rest on Houthi figures only. - A report that Iran's parliamentary bill to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty lacks the votes to pass rests on one outlet. - The attribution of the roughly $351.6 million Bitget crypto theft of Sept 24 to North Korea's Lazarus Group is the company's own claim, with no government confirmation.
- Research limits: this review covers only the week since the Sept 21 review. Several entries had no verified development in that week, so their updated date reflects a re-read of the situation, not a fresh finding: - Flashpoints: Nigeria & Lake Chad, Libya, and Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa. For the Sahel, no new major attack was verified. For Sanctions & evasion, the Russia sanctions act signed on Sept 18 is recorded as background, not as a new event. - Actors: Africa Corps, the Chinese state cyber actors, the Matryoshka influence network, CJNG and Viv Ansanm. - Some specialist outlets, including the Institute for the Study of War's site on Sept 26 and Sept 27 and several Myanmar outlets, could not be read, so some items rest on search summaries and are marked as reported.
Changes in threat, status or trend
| Entry | Region | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia & Eritrea | Africa | 4 / Escalating / Escalating | 5 / Active war / Escalating |
| US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) | Middle East | 5 / Active war / Escalating | 5 / Active war / Stable |
| Horn of Africa sea access and port rivalry | Africa | 3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating | 4 / Escalating / Escalating |
| South Sudan | Africa | 4 / Active war / Stable | 4 / Active war / Escalating |
| Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis | Middle East | 3 / Escalating / Stable | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable |
| Moldova & Transnistria | Europe & Russia | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable | 3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating |
| Venezuela | Americas | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable | 3 / Tense/Stable / Easing |
New entries this week
none
Removed this week
none
Threat ladder on 28 September 2026
| Level | Flashpoints (status, trend) |
|---|---|
| 5 | Ethiopia & Eritrea (Active war, escalating); Russia–Ukraine war (Active war, escalating); Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (Active war, escalating); Saudi Arabia–Houthi war (Active war, escalating); Sudan civil war (Active war, escalating); US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (Active war, stable); Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (Active war, escalating) |
| 4 | Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war (Escalating, escalating); Colombia (Escalating, escalating); Eastern DRC & Rwanda (Active war, stable); Gulf states & Turkey (Escalating, escalating); Haiti (Active war, escalating); Horn of Africa sea access and port rivalry (Escalating, escalating); Infrastructure & domain sabotage (Escalating, escalating); Iran internal stability (Escalating, escalating); Iran nuclear program (Escalating, escalating); Iraq (Escalating, escalating); Lebanon & Hezbollah (Active war, stable); Myanmar civil war (Active war, escalating); Nigeria & Lake Chad (Escalating, escalating); Nuclear weapons & arms control (Tense/Stable, escalating); Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA) (Active war, escalating); Private military companies & proxies (Escalating, escalating); Russian hybrid operations in Europe (Escalating, escalating); Russia–NATO frontier (Escalating, escalating); Somalia (Escalating, escalating); South Sudan (Active war, escalating); State cyber operations (Escalating, escalating) |
| 3 | Belarus (Watch, stable); Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America (Escalating, stable); Disinformation & election interference (Escalating, escalating); Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia (Escalating, escalating); Global institutions & diplomacy (Watch, stable); India–Pakistan & China–India (Tense/Stable, stable); Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis (Tense/Stable, stable); Israel–Gaza (Tense/Stable, stable); Libya (Tense/Stable, easing); Mexico & cartels (Escalating, escalating); Moldova & Transnistria (Tense/Stable, escalating); Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa (Escalating, escalating); North Korea (Tense/Stable, stable); Sanctions & evasion (Tense/Stable, stable); South & East China Sea (Escalating, escalating); Syria transition (Tense/Stable, stable); Taiwan Strait (Tense/Stable, stable); Terrorism (Tense/Stable, stable); US posture in the hemisphere (Tense/Stable, stable); Venezuela (Tense/Stable, easing); West Bank (Escalating, escalating) |
| 2 | Brazil & Southern Cone (Watch, escalating); Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar) (Watch, stable); Japan, South Korea & Pacific (Watch, stable); Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania (Watch, escalating); South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) (Tense/Stable, stable); Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia (Watch, stable); Turkey–PKK peace process (Tense/Stable, stable); US–China relations (De-escalating, easing); Western Balkans (Tense/Stable, escalating) |
Dates in the next 30 days
- 2026-09-29: Bolivian government talks with the drivers' confederation over Decree 5716 (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
- 2026-09-29: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
- 2026-09-29: US import bans on Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, whey and other goods take effect (US posture in the hemisphere)
- 2026-09-30: Approval window for the election deal closes (approximate) (Libya)
- 2026-09-30: Curfew in Guayas, Manabi, Los Rios and El Oro under Ecuador's Decree 498 due to end (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission (Iraq)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission in Iraq (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission in Iraq (Private military companies & proxies)
- 2026-09-30: Tulkarm and Nur Shams camp closure orders lapse or renew (West Bank)
- 2026-09-30: UN Security Council vote on re-authorising the Gang Suppression Force; current mandate expires (Haiti)
- 2026-09-30: UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate) (Syria transition)
- 2026-10-01: Expected evacuation of PKK camps in the Qandil mountains (Turkey–PKK peace process)
- 2026-10-01: PKK camp evacuation date under the Turkish peace process (Iraq)
- 2026-10-02: IMF board vote on a US$1.9 billion Bolivia programme (reported) (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
- 2026-10-03: End of the Sukkot closure of the West Bank (West Bank)
- 2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Russian hybrid operations in Europe)
- 2026-10-04: Bosnia and Herzegovina general election (Western Balkans)
- 2026-10-04: Brazil first round (Disinformation & election interference)
- 2026-10-04: Brazil first-round presidential election (Brazil & Southern Cone)
- 2026-10-06: Deadline set by Kosovo's Constitutional Court for parliament to elect a president (Western Balkans)
- 2026-10-09: Darfur sanctions rollover expires (approximately Oct 9-12) (Sudan civil war)
- 2026-10-10: Taiwan National Day address by President Lai (Taiwan Strait)
- 2026-10-10: Workers' Party of Korea founding anniversary, a traditional date for parades and weapons displays (North Korea)
- 2026-10-13: Voter registration closes (Haiti)
- 2026-10-25: Brazil run-off (Brazil & Southern Cone)
- 2026-10-25: Serbia early parliamentary election (Russian hybrid operations in Europe)
- 2026-10-25: Serbia early parliamentary election (Western Balkans)
- 2026-10-27: Israel election (Disinformation & election interference)
- 2026-10-27: Israeli Knesset election (Israel–Gaza)
- 2026-10-27: Israeli election (Lebanon & Hezbollah)