Global Situation Board
Flashpoint · Africa

South Sudan

4HighActive war■ stable
Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

The 2018 peace deal has collapsed: Machar is on trial for treason and crimes against humanity alongside seven co-defendants over the March 2025 Nasir violence, while SPLA-IO and White Army fighters battle the SSPDF in Jonglei and Upper Nile. On Sept 10 the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan reported that the human cost of violence continues to grow and warned that the Dec 22 election cannot be held safely on present conditions. UNICEF said on Sept 14 that it had reached Jonglei communities cut off by fighting for months, and WFP warned on Sept 15 that a 'super El Nino' is compounding violence and reduced aid to deepen the hunger crisis. No verdict in the Machar case had been confirmed by Sept 15.

Recent, assessed

  • 2026-09-15WFP warns that a 'super El Nino', continuing violence and reduced aid are deepening South Sudan's food crisis. news.un.org
  • 2026-09-14UNICEF reaches Jonglei communities that had been cut off from humanitarian support for months by the fighting. news.un.org

Level history

Threat level after each research review12 September 2026 baseline: level 4; 12 September 2026 weekly review: level 4; 14 September 2026 weekly review: level 4; 15 September 2026 weekly review: level 41234512 September 2026, baseline: level 4, Active war, trend stable12 September 2026, weekly review: level 4, Active war, trend stable14 September 2026, weekly review: level 4, Active war, trend stable15 September 2026, weekly review: level 4, Active war, trend stable12 Sep14 Sep15 Septoday

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

DateLevelStatusTrendReview
2026-09-154Active war■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-144Active war■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-124Active war■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-124Active war■ stableBaseline

Latest headlines 91

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.