Somalia
Assessment
Somalia's core crisis is political: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's mandate expired on May 15 and he says he will serve to May 2027, a dispute that produced days of urban fighting in Mogadishu in early June between federal forces and militias loyal to Hassan Ali Khaire and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. Federal forces are also fighting member-state actors, with three assaults on Baidoa by Laftagareen loyalists and al-Shabaab fighters repelled through Sept 3 and Puntland's seizure of a federal camp at Galkayo in August. Al-Shabaab holds its 2025 territorial gains and is content to wait while its enemies fight each other, with AUSSOM's budget largely unfunded. Piracy has returned off Puntland: the hijacked cargo ship MV Sward and its 17 crew were released near Garacad on Sept 11 after 138 days and a reported ransom, having been used as a mothership to seize two Iranian fishing boats and the Cameroon-flagged MV Lutuf.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-03Government repels a third Laftagareen assault on Baidoa and says the attackers fight alongside al-Shabaab. aljazeera.com
- 2026-08-30Turkish and Somali forces free a hijacked cargo ship; two tankers seized in August. aljazeera.com
- 2026-08-05Puntland forces seize a federal camp at Galkayo airport; more than 100 arrested. aljazeera.com
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Baseline |
Latest headlines 13
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.
- Somalia’s security clock is ticking: Can Somali forces survive the UNSOS, AUSSOM drawdown?
- Africa Media Review for September 18, 2026
- African Nations Join Maritime Alliance As Piracy Surges
- Somalia Awaits a New Security Order as Mission Drawdown Looms
- United States bombs "a weapons warehouse" of Al Shabaab in northern Somalia again
- Somali National Army Conducts Planned Operations in Lower Shabelle
- US backs year-long wind-down of UN office in Somalia — Jerusalem Post
- Assessing the Power, Strategic Depth, and Resilience of Al-Qaeda’s East African Affiliate
- To Stop the Houthis, Recognize Somaliland and South Arabia
- Retreating al-Shabaab still command swathes of Somalia – Report
- Agro-pastoral Futures at a Crossroads: Climate, Conflict and Resilient Livelihoods Transformation in Somalia and South Sudan
- Puntland and US Confirm Airstrike on Al-Shabaab Weapons Depot in Golis Mountains
- Somalia: Puntland, US confirm operation targeting Al-Shabaab weapons depot