Weekly review
5 October 2026
The weekly research review re-read the reporting on the entries on the board and reassessed them. Threat levels run from 1 (low) to 5 (severe); a review moves a level at most one step unless a war starts or ends, a ceasefire takes hold, a coup succeeds or a state collapses. How the board works.
Executive summary
- US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (israel-iran) stays at level 5, Active war, but its trend moves from Stable to Escalating. US strikes on Iran have not resumed, yet the US sent a third carrier group on Oct 2 and a Marine unit on Oct 3, six vessel attacks in or near Hormuz were counted between Sept 30 and Oct 3, and Iran's speaker said on Oct 4 that the strait stays closed until Washington accepts Iran's plan.
- Iraq (iraq) moves from Escalating to Tense/Stable with a Stable trend, still at level 4, and Iraqi Shia militias (iraqi-militias) drop from 4 to 3. The US-led coalition completed its exit on Sept 30 without attacks, Kataib Hezbollah ordered a halt to operations on Oct 1, and no Iraqi-launched attack on Gulf states or US forces was verified between Sept 21 and Oct 5. Iraq stays at 4 because it has almost no air defence and lies in the path of any renewed US-Iran fighting; the militias keep their weapons.
- North Korea (north-korea) stays at 3 with its trend now Escalating: the UN Command found on Sept 30 that a North Korean mine in the DMZ, which injured three South Korean soldiers, violated the Armistice, and on Oct 2 the North fired a ballistic missile more than 700 km. Nobody was killed and no fire was exchanged, so the level holds.
- Terrorism (terrorism) stays at 3 with its trend now Escalating after two incidents linked to the Iran war in one week: a suspected plot against RAF Fairford (six arrests between Sept 27 and Oct 1, none charged) and a Sept 30 cockpit attack on a flydubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv, which the UAE called a terrorist act on Oct 3. Libya (libya) stays at 3 but its trend moves from Easing to Stable: the High Council of State reportedly rejected the laws tied to the August election deal on Sept 29, and the deal's own negotiators called implementation premature on Oct 4.
- Two actors join the board. Tigrayan forces and the EPFAS rebel alliance (epfas-tplf) enters at level 4: it sustains the level-5 war in Ethiopia and claimed drone strikes on Addis Ababa on Oct 1, but lost Alamata on Sept 28 and Mekelle on Oct 3 to 4. FARC dissidents (farc-dissidents) enters at level 3, on a Sept 29 drone and gunfire attack on a checkpoint in Cauca attributed to the Mordisco faction.
- Biggest developments without a level change: in Ethiopia & Eritrea (ethiopia, level 5) federal forces took Mekelle while the TPLF promised a counter-attack, and Eritrea severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia on Oct 1. In the Saudi Arabia–Houthi war (saudi-houthi, level 5) the Houthis took al-Turbah on the Taiz-Aden road and claimed strikes on Aramco sites at Riyadh and Khurais as Yemen's government announced a counter-offensive. In the Russia–Ukraine war (ukraine-war, level 5) Russia opened its winter strike campaign on Sept 30 with nearly 190 drones and missiles on Kyiv's energy system, Putin rejected an energy truce on Oct 1 and repeated a nuclear threat over Kaliningrad.
- Also notable: Brazil's first round on Oct 4 sent Flavio Bolsonaro (about 47 percent) and Lula (44.9 percent) to an Oct 25 run-off with no violence reported; the Security Council renewed Haiti's Gang Suppression Force to March 31, 2027; Pakistan struck Kunar and Helmand in Afghanistan on Oct 1; and a junta air strike on Kyauktaw market in Myanmar on Sept 28 killed at least 33.
- Reported, not established: the Aramco damage at Riyadh and Khurais (Houthi claims and analyst imagery against a coalition denial, with no Saudi statement); the reported deployment of 30,000 to 40,000 Pakistani personnel to Saudi Arabia (one official, via ISW); the Hormuz vessel-attack count (ISW only); the reported 90-day mutual halt in attacks in Iraq, which Kataib Hezbollah denies is a deal; the Russian memo on a Kaliningrad blockade (one outlet); the Libyan council's Sept 29 rejection (one outlet); the Cauca checkpoint attack and its casualty count (one outlet, preliminary); Eritrean soldiers reported inside Afar (one official); the Kyauktaw toll (33 against 50 or more) and the Kunar and Helmand tolls (contested). Reports that US or Israeli strikes on Iran had resumed, and that Hormuz had been mined, could not be verified and were not used.
- Research limits: no verified development was found this week for the Turkey–PKK peace process, the South & East China Sea, coup-belt transitions, Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania, State cyber operations, and the actors Viv Ansanm, CJNG, the Chinese, Russian and North Korean cyber programmes and Matryoshka; their dates moved but their recent events did not. In most cases this reflects a one-week window and outlets that could not be opened rather than confirmed calm. Lebanon, Iran's internal situation, Nigeria and South Sudan rest on few items, and coverage of the Indo-Pacific leaned heavily on a single outlet.
Changes in threat, status or trend
| Entry | Region | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) | Middle East | 5 / Active war / Stable | 5 / Active war / Escalating |
| Iraq | Middle East | 4 / Escalating / Escalating | 4 / Tense/Stable / Stable |
| Tigrayan forces and the EPFAS rebel alliance (TPLF, Fano, OLA) | Africa | new entry | 4 / - / - |
| FARC dissidents (EMC / Mordisco, Segunda Marquetalia) | Americas | new entry | 3 / - / - |
| Iraqi Shia militias (Kataib Hezbollah etc.) | Middle East | 4 / - / - | 3 / - / - |
| Libya | Africa | 3 / Tense/Stable / Easing | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable |
| North Korea | Indo-Pacific & South Asia | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable | 3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating |
| Terrorism | Transnational & Hybrid | 3 / Tense/Stable / Stable | 3 / Tense/Stable / Escalating |
New entries this week
- Tigrayan forces and the EPFAS rebel alliance (TPLF, Fano, OLA) (epfas-tplf, actor, Africa): 4 / - / -
- FARC dissidents (EMC / Mordisco, Segunda Marquetalia) (farc-dissidents, actor, Americas): 3 / - / -
Removed this week
none
Threat ladder on 5 October 2026
| Level | Flashpoints (status, trend) |
|---|---|
| 5 | Ethiopia & Eritrea (Active war, escalating); Russia–Ukraine war (Active war, escalating); Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) (Active war, escalating); Saudi Arabia–Houthi war (Active war, escalating); Sudan civil war (Active war, escalating); US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war) (Active war, escalating); Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea (Active war, escalating) |
| 4 | Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war (Escalating, escalating); Colombia (Escalating, escalating); Eastern DRC & Rwanda (Active war, stable); Gulf states & Turkey (Escalating, escalating); Haiti (Active war, escalating); Horn of Africa sea access and port rivalry (Escalating, escalating); Infrastructure & domain sabotage (Escalating, escalating); Iran internal stability (Escalating, escalating); Iran nuclear program (Escalating, escalating); Iraq (Tense/Stable, stable); Lebanon & Hezbollah (Active war, stable); Myanmar civil war (Active war, escalating); Nigeria & Lake Chad (Escalating, escalating); Nuclear weapons & arms control (Tense/Stable, escalating); Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA) (Active war, escalating); Private military companies & proxies (Escalating, escalating); Russian hybrid operations in Europe (Escalating, escalating); Russia–NATO frontier (Escalating, escalating); Somalia (Escalating, escalating); South Sudan (Active war, escalating); State cyber operations (Escalating, escalating) |
| 3 | Belarus (Watch, stable); Cuba, Nicaragua and Central America (Escalating, stable); Disinformation & election interference (Escalating, escalating); Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia (Escalating, escalating); Global institutions & diplomacy (Watch, stable); India–Pakistan & China–India (Tense/Stable, stable); Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis (Tense/Stable, stable); Israel–Gaza (Tense/Stable, stable); Libya (Tense/Stable, stable); Mexico & cartels (Escalating, escalating); Moldova & Transnistria (Tense/Stable, escalating); Mozambique, Cameroon & Central Africa (Escalating, escalating); North Korea (Tense/Stable, escalating); Sanctions & evasion (Tense/Stable, stable); South & East China Sea (Escalating, escalating); Syria transition (Tense/Stable, stable); Taiwan Strait (Tense/Stable, stable); Terrorism (Tense/Stable, escalating); US posture in the hemisphere (Tense/Stable, stable); Venezuela (Tense/Stable, easing); West Bank (Escalating, escalating) |
| 2 | Brazil & Southern Cone (Watch, escalating); Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar) (Watch, stable); Japan, South Korea & Pacific (Watch, stable); Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania (Watch, escalating); South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) (Tense/Stable, stable); Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia (Watch, stable); Turkey–PKK peace process (Tense/Stable, stable); US–China relations (De-escalating, easing); Western Balkans (Tense/Stable, escalating) |
Dates in the next 30 days
- 2026-10-06: Deadline set by Kosovo's Constitutional Court for parliament to elect a president (Western Balkans)
- 2026-10-07: PTI march due to reach Khairabad, about 80 km west of Islamabad (Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA))
- 2026-10-08: Israel's 30-day deadline for closing the UK consulate in East Jerusalem expires (West Bank)
- 2026-10-09: 1591 Darfur sanctions regime expires unless the Security Council extends it (Sudan civil war)
- 2026-10-09: SPLM candidate nominations close (South Sudan)
- 2026-10-10: Anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
- 2026-10-10: First anniversary of the October 2025 ceasefire (approximate) (Israel–Gaza)
- 2026-10-10: Taiwan National Day address by President Lai (Taiwan Strait)
- 2026-10-10: Workers' Party of Korea founding anniversary, a traditional date for parades and weapons displays (North Korea)
- 2026-10-13: Start of national mobilisation threatened by Evo Morales against Bolivia's Decree 5716 (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
- 2026-10-13: Voter registration closes (Haiti)
- 2026-10-14: Belarusian potash shipment to the United States reportedly expected (Belarus)
- 2026-10-18: Graham Act provisions reported to take effect 30 days after the Sept 18 signature (Sanctions & evasion)
- 2026-10-18: Graham sanctions act requires the president to implement its tariffs and sanctions within 30 days of the Sept 18 signing, subject to national-interest waivers (Russia–Ukraine war)
- 2026-10-25: Brazil presidential run-off, with US pressure a campaign issue (US posture in the hemisphere)
- 2026-10-25: Brazil presidential runoff (Disinformation & election interference)
- 2026-10-25: Brazil run-off between Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula (Brazil & Southern Cone)
- 2026-10-25: Serbia early parliamentary election (Russian hybrid operations in Europe)
- 2026-10-25: Serbia early parliamentary election (Western Balkans)
- 2026-10-27: Israel election (Disinformation & election interference)
- 2026-10-27: Israel election, flagged by Netanyahu on Sept 29 as a period of heightened attack risk (Terrorism)
- 2026-10-27: Israeli Knesset election (Israel–Gaza)
- 2026-10-27: Israeli Knesset election (West Bank)
- 2026-10-27: Israeli election (Lebanon & Hezbollah)
- 2026-10-31: UNSMIL mandate expires; Security Council renewal vote expected in October (Libya)
- 2026-11-03: US midterm elections (Mexico & cartels)
- 2026-11-03: US midterm elections (US posture in the hemisphere)
- 2026-11-03: US midterm elections, after which Trump says a deal or military action is expected (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
- 2026-11-03: US midterms (Disinformation & election interference)
- 2026-11-03: US midterms (State cyber operations)