Tigrayan forces and the EPFAS rebel alliance (TPLF, Fano, OLA)

Assessment

The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, announced on Sept 20 and chaired by Fano leader Zemene Kasse, launched the Sept 23 offensive through its Tigrayan core but has since lost Alamata on Sept 28 and Mekelle on Oct 3-4, with the TPLF saying it has moved out to fight from elsewhere and chairman Debretsion Gebremichael promising a counter-attack. It retains the capacity to widen the war, claiming drone strikes on Addis Ababa on Oct 1 and fighting with the Afar group Ugugumo toward the Semera-Djibouti corridor, though Al Jazeera reports that only the TPLF, Fano and Ugugumo of its members were actively fighting as of late September.