Global Situation Board
Flashpoint · Africa

Eastern DRC & Rwanda

4HighActive war■ stable
Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

M23/AFC holds Goma and Bukavu and FARDC-M23 clashes continue in North and South Kivu, while the Washington and Doha tracks grind on: DRC and Rwandan officials meet in Geneva on Sept 16-17 under the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism, with neither the neutralisation of the FDLR nor Rwanda's lifting of its border defensive measures declared complete. Police dispersed opposition protests against Tshisekedi's constitutional amendment in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and Uvira on Sept 15 and arrested at least 10 people, with the C64 coalition and the Catholic Church treating the proposed referendum as a third-term vehicle. The country's worst-ever Ebola epidemic passed 7,022 cases and 3,398 deaths on Sept 12 and reached a seventh province, South-Ubangi, on Sept 11, and UN responders said on Sept 15 that the outbreak is still widening across conflict-affected areas.

Recent, assessed

  • 2026-09-15Police use tear gas against C64 opposition protests in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and Uvira against Tshisekedi's constitutional amendment; at least 10 people arrested. aljazeera.com
  • 2026-09-15DRC and Rwanda set to meet in Geneva on Sept 16-17 under the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism with US, Qatari, Togolese and AU mediators; FDLR neutralisation and Rwanda's lifting of defensive measures both remain undeclared. aljazeera.com
  • 2026-09-15UN says Ebola responders are grappling with a still-widening outbreak in DR Congo and appeals for renewed international support. news.un.org

Level history

Threat level after each research review12 September 2026 baseline: level 4; 12 September 2026 weekly review: level 4; 14 September 2026 weekly review: level 4; 15 September 2026 weekly review: level 41234512 September 2026, baseline: level 4, Active war, trend stable12 September 2026, weekly review: level 4, Active war, trend stable14 September 2026, weekly review: level 4, Active war, trend stable15 September 2026, weekly review: level 4, Active war, trend stable12 Sep14 Sep15 Septoday

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

DateLevelStatusTrendReview
2026-09-154Active war■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-144Active war■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-124Active war■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-124Active war■ stableBaseline

Latest headlines 13

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.