Ethiopia & Eritrea
Assessment
The Pretoria settlement is unravelling: TDF-aligned forces took Alamata and Korem earlier in 2026, federal and Tigrayan forces fought with artillery and drones near the Sudanese border on Aug 1-3, and a TPLF-Fano-OLA realignment publicised on Sept 5 puts former enemies on the same side against Addis Ababa. Human Rights Watch warned on Sept 9 that rising Tigray tensions are testing the African Union's conflict-prevention machinery and urged it to intensify engagement with both Addis Ababa and the TPLF. Addis accuses Asmara of arming the TPLF while Eritrea accuses Abiy of coveting Assab, and on Sept 14 Eritrea's foreign minister Osman Saleh publicly accused the UAE of 'port-based colonialism' in the Horn, a measure of how far Red Sea access politics drive Asmara's posture. Parliament convenes in October to reappoint Abiy after a June election that excluded Tigray.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-14Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh accuses the UAE of 'port-based colonialism' in the Horn, citing DP World at Berbera and Bosaso and saying Asmara rejected a reported UAE military facility on the Dahlak Islands. (snippet only) allafrica.com
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Baseline |
Latest headlines 21
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.
- US joins Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey and Israel in race for Red Sea influence as it lifts Eritrea sanctions linked to Ethiopia war that killed 600,000
- Eritrea Welcomes US Sanctions Removal After Years of Measures
- US lifts sanctions on Eritrea’s ruling party, military
- Red Sea Realignment: Houthi Advancements at Bab el-Mandeb and the Strategic Gamble for the Horn of Africa
- US lifts sanctions targeting Eritrea's ruling party and the military
- US Lifts Sanctions on Eritrea Amid Red Sea Focus
- US lifts sanctions on Eritrea, with eye on Red Sea
- Men deported from US bound and beaten in Equatorial Guinea detention hotel, lawyers say
- US Removes Eritrea Sanctions on Military and Ruling Party
- Sudan says it does not want war with Ethiopia amid rising border tensions
- Fighting Erupts Between ENDF and Tigray Forces in Northwestern Tigray
- Eritrea: what hope of justice for “Africa’s North Korea”?
- ‘We demand the truth’: Olga Tokarczuk and JM Coetzee lead calls for proof of life of disappeared Eritrean writers
- Sudan says it does not want war with Ethiopia amid rising tensions
- ENDF Says Nearly 300 TPLF Fighters Surrender in Tekeze Area