Coup-belt transitions and coastal West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Togo, Madagascar)
Assessment
The pattern is consolidation with closed political space rather than collapse: Doumbouya won the December 2025 presidential vote with 86.7 percent and his coalition took 93 of 147 seats in the May 31 legislative election, Guinea-Bissau's junta expanded executive power and cut parliament from 102 to 65 seats by a referendum approved by about 70 percent on Aug 30 ahead of a Dec 6 general election, and Benin's opposition holds no seats after the December coup attempt. Chad has jailed opposition leaders and is leaving the ICC. The main security risk is JNIM pressure on the coastal states, which pushed Togo to order four Super Tucano light attack aircraft. No new development was verified in the two days to Sept 15.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-01NGOs demand a probe into six bodies found in a Guinea mass grave; Madagascar jails former Senate president Ravalomanana. aljazeera.com
- 2026-08-30Guinea-Bissau referendum expands executive power and cuts parliament from 102 to 65 seats. en.wikipedia.org
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 2 | Watch | ■ stable | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 2 | Watch | ■ stable | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 2 | Watch | ■ stable | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 2 | Watch | ■ stable | Baseline |
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