Actor · non-state · Africa
al-Shabaab
Assessed 15 September 2026
Assessment
Al-Shabaab retains the territorial gains of its 2025 offensive and is exploiting the federal-state fight, joining or shadowing the militia assaults on Baidoa that government and South West State forces repelled through Sept 3. Analysts assess it is largely waiting out the Mogadishu term-extension standoff rather than pressing a new offensive, and no new major operation was verified through Sept 15.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-08-07NISA arrests nine plotters; record tempo. criticalthreats.org
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Review |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 4 | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 4 | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | Baseline |
Latest headlines 3
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.