Changes
Every change of threat level, status or 30-day trend made by a research review, newest first, with the entries added and removed, and the outcome whenever a review settled a level the editor had set by hand. Changes from the weekly review are unmarked; the rest are labelled with the review that made them. Follow the changes feed.
15 September 2026 Read the weekly review
- Gulf states & Turkey 3→4 Tense/Stable → Escalating
- Russia–NATO frontier 5→4 editor’s level overridden the previous research level was 4
- Added Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis, first assessed at 3 Escalating, trend stable out-of-cycle review
14 September 2026 Read the weekly review
- Iraq 3→4 Tense/Stable → Escalating
- Syria transition 3held trend easing → stable
- Private military companies & proxies 3→4
13 September 2026
- Added Saudi Arabia, first assessed at 4 out-of-cycle review
- Added Arakan Army, first assessed at 4 out-of-cycle review
- Added Saudi Arabia–Houthi war, first assessed at 5 Active war, trend escalating out-of-cycle review
- Added Pakistan internal insurgency (TTP and BLA), first assessed at 4 Active war, trend escalating out-of-cycle review
12 September 2026 Read the weekly review
- Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war 4→3 Active war → Tense/Stable
- India–Pakistan & China–India 3held trend escalating → stable
- Yemen, Houthis & Red Sea 4→5 Escalating → Active war
- Nuclear weapons & arms control 4held trend stable → escalating
- Baseline The board’s first assessment: 81 entries rated. Read the baseline