Global Situation Board
Flashpoint · Americas

Venezuela

3ElevatedTense/Stable■ stable
Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

Acting president Delcy Rodriguez told a Miraflores press conference on Sept 2 that a presidential election will without a doubt happen when Venezuela is ready but refused to name a date, leaving the post-Maduro transition open-ended after the Aug 6 opening of US-facilitated government-opposition talks that Machado and Gonzalez Urrutia are boycotting. Foro Penal counted 382 political prisoners still held as of Aug 3 despite an amnesty that freed more than 800 between January and May and a further 131 announced in August. Operation Southern Spear continues, with a SOUTHCOM strike on a go-fast vessel in the Caribbean on Sept 9 killing three and a cumulative toll of at least 230 killed in at least 68 strikes on 69 vessels since September 2025; no further strike was recorded between Sept 10 and Sept 15. Maduro remains in US custody in New York, where his wife Cilia Flores asked on Sept 11 for home detention on health grounds.

Recent, assessed

  • 2026-09-09SOUTHCOM's Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere strikes a go-fast vessel in the Caribbean, killing three. stripes.com
  • 2026-09-02Delcy Rodriguez says an election will happen when Venezuela 'is ready' and that she does not set the date (snippet only). bloomberg.com

Level history

Threat level after each research review12 September 2026 baseline: level 3; 12 September 2026 weekly review: level 3; 14 September 2026 weekly review: level 3; 15 September 2026 weekly review: level 31234512 September 2026, baseline: level 3, Tense/Stable, trend stable12 September 2026, weekly review: level 3, Tense/Stable, trend stable14 September 2026, weekly review: level 3, Tense/Stable, trend stable15 September 2026, weekly review: level 3, Tense/Stable, trend stable12 Sep14 Sep15 Septoday

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

DateLevelStatusTrendReview
2026-09-153Tense/Stable■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-143Tense/Stable■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-123Tense/Stable■ stableWeekly review
2026-09-123Tense/Stable■ stableBaseline

Latest headlines 80

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.