Global Situation Board
Flashpoint · Americas

Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia

3ElevatedEscalating▲ escalating
Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

Ecuador is the front line of the US maritime campaign: the Noboa government defended the sinking of three vessels on Sept 5 as joint anti-drug work, Rubio announced 45 million dollars in security funding plus additional naval vessels in Quito on Sept 9 and was decorated with the Gran Cruz de la Orden Nacional al Merito, and on Sept 10 Noboa removed air force commander Mauricio Salazar by Executive Decree 496, two days after Salazar asked in writing for clear legal rules governing temporary US Air Force flights at Taura air base. Peru's Fujimori government published Supreme Decree 128-2026 on Sept 6 declaring a 60-day emergency in five maximum-security prisons, and interior minister Cesar Astudillo is due before the Chamber of Deputies on Sept 17 to answer 27 questions on the crime wave after a Sept 10 interpellation vote. Bolivia's Paz is governing under the aftermath of the June 20 blockade emergency, with an IMF programme and a proposed 1.5 billion dollar fuel-supply arrangement with Washington. No further escalation in any of the three countries was verified between Sept 14 and Sept 15.

Recent, assessed

  • 2026-09-09Rubio in Quito announces 45 million dollars in security funding and additional naval vessels for Ecuador. aljazeera.com
  • 2026-09-06Peru publishes Supreme Decree 128-2026 declaring a 60-day state of emergency in five maximum-security prisons to break phone-run extortion networks (single-sourced). riotimesonline.com
  • 2026-09-05Ecuador's interior minister defends the US sinking of three vessels as joint international cooperation; 28 crew recovered from two boats are handed over in Manta, and relatives say the men were fishermen. aljazeera.com

Level history

Threat level after each research review12 September 2026 baseline: level 3; 12 September 2026 weekly review: level 3; 14 September 2026 weekly review: level 3; 15 September 2026 weekly review: level 31234512 September 2026, baseline: level 3, Escalating, trend escalating12 September 2026, weekly review: level 3, Escalating, trend escalating14 September 2026, weekly review: level 3, Escalating, trend escalating15 September 2026, weekly review: level 3, Escalating, trend escalating12 Sep14 Sep15 Septoday

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

DateLevelStatusTrendReview
2026-09-153Escalating▲ escalatingWeekly review
2026-09-143Escalating▲ escalatingWeekly review
2026-09-123Escalating▲ escalatingWeekly review
2026-09-123Escalating▲ escalatingBaseline

Latest headlines 16

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.