Brazil & Southern Cone
Assessment
Brazil votes on Oct 4 with a run-off on Oct 25 in a statistical dead heat: a BTG/Nexus survey published Sept 14 put Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro 47 to 46 in a run-off, reversing a PoderData/Aya poll published Sept 10 that gave Flavio 47 to Lula's 45, with both gaps inside the margin of error. The swing is bound up with a Supreme Court crisis involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and leaked communications with a banker at the centre of a multibillion-dollar fraud case, which has cut against both campaigns in turn. The backdrop is 25 percent US tariffs on Brazil, US terrorist designations of the PCC and Comando Vermelho, Milei's threats over the Falklands' Sea Lion oil project and Kast's Bukele-style security build-out in Chile.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-14A BTG/Nexus poll puts Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro 47-46 in a run-off, a two-point gain within the margin of error, as the Supreme Court crisis renews scrutiny of Flavio's ties to a banker in a fraud case (snippet only). bloomberg.com
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 2 | Watch | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 2 | Watch | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 2 | Watch | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 2 | Watch | ▲ escalating | Baseline |
Latest headlines 13
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.
- Opinion: Can Brazil’s Lula best Bolsonaro’s backers?
- Brazilian police capture suspected serial killer disguised as a woman
- Chile National Day
- Brazil’s Lula announces higher welfare payments and free weight-loss jabs ahead of election
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- Inside the Dead Heat Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro — What Voters Abroad Decide on Brazil's Election Day
- What the BRICS Summit Meant for Brazil
- Brazil’s Lula announces 15% increase in flagship welfare payments ahead of key election
- Fernando Cerimedo: Revealing Trump’s election interference in Latin America
- Latam markets inch higher in global risk-on mood after Fed hike
- Dollar pressure weighs on LatAm FX; regional stocks edge higher
- 2nd Congress of the Revolutionary Communists of Chile: a major step forward
- IAEA General Conference Elects Argentine Ambassador as Conference President