US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war)
Assessment
The US-Israeli war with Iran is in its seventh month with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed to commercial traffic and the US naval blockade holding Iranian crude exports near 247,000 barrels a day. Diplomacy reopened rhetorically but not in substance: after the Trump administration signalled on Sept 15 that it was searching for ways to end the conflict and reopen the strait, Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei rejected negotiations unless Tehran's conditions are met, saying the stakes around oil and the straits have changed. The first regional attempt at a Hormuz arrangement collapsed before convening when Oman postponed the Sept 14 Salalah meeting of Iranian, Iraqi and Gulf foreign ministers on Sept 13 in the interests of consensus, hours after an attack on a commercial vessel near Qeshm Island killed one person. Brent rose about 1.8 percent to roughly 107.55 dollars a barrel on Sept 15 on the Saudi pipeline outage and fresh Houthi attacks, with Goldman Sachs flagging a raised probability of Brent above 120 dollars.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-15Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei rejects negotiations with Washington unless Tehran's conditions are met, after the Trump administration signals it is seeking a way to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz (single-sourced). timesofisrael.com
- 2026-09-15Brent rises 1.77 percent to about 107.55 dollars a barrel on the Saudi pipeline outage and fresh Houthi attacks; Goldman Sachs says the attacks raise the probability of Brent above 120 dollars. rte.ie
- 2026-09-14Al Jazeera reports that a temporary Hormuz solution is deferred after the Iran-Arab meeting in Salalah falls through, with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi saying the postponement was in the interests of consensus. aljazeera.com
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 5 | Active war | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 5 | Active war | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 5 | Active war | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 5 | Active war | ▲ escalating | Baseline |
Latest headlines 54
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.
- US military on the brink of a ‘breakdown’
- Iran Rally In Tehran: 600,000 Sign Up For Military Training As War With US, Israel Continues
- US Iran war costs $43.6B; 22 troops dead as Hormuz risk lingers
- Iran executes man accused of leaking missile information to Israel
- Shafaq News..Hormuz oil flows reach 10M+ bpd
- US Iran War: Trump has a "big decision coming up"
- Trump says Iran seeking deal as US considers next move
- More U.S. troops have died amid Iran war than Pentagon has disclosed publicly
- Seoul, Washington discuss Hormuz, investment and North Korea
- Beyond Hormuz: How Saudi Arabia’s Oil-Route Redundancy Is Being Tested – Analysis
- Iran executes man after convicting him of giving Israel info on missile sites during 2025 war
- The U.S.-Iran War Has No Clear Exit
- Faulty AI Intelligence Nearly Ignited US-China Confrontation In Middle East – Report
- Secretary Rubio’s Meeting with Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Cho
- Iran war’s cost grows to $43.6 billion in new US military estimate