Actor · state · Middle East

Iran (IRGC / Supreme Leader)

5Severe

Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and rejected a reopening of talks on Sept 15, when security official Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran would negotiate only if its conditions are met after the Trump administration signalled it was seeking a way to end the war. Tehran continues drone and missile strikes on Iranian Kurdish opposition camps in Iraq's Kurdistan Region and accused the IAEA of politicisation after its nuclear chief was refused entry to Vienna on Sept 14.

Recent, assessed

2026-09-15Mohsen Rezaei rejects negotiations with Washington unless Iran's conditions are met, saying the stakes around oil and the straits have changed (single-sourced). timesofisrael.com
2026-09-14Iran's nuclear chief is refused entry to Austria for the IAEA General Conference; Iran's IAEA ambassador calls it a politicisation of the agency. aljazeera.com

Level history

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

Date	Level	Review
2026-09-15	5	Weekly review
2026-09-14	5	Weekly review
2026-09-12	5	Weekly review
2026-09-12	5	Baseline

Latest headlines 23

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.

Inside the Houthi advance: How Iran's allies are helping tighten Tehran's grip on the Red SeaThe Jerusalem Post · 19 Sep, 09:39 UTC
Iran Rally In Tehran: 600,000 Sign Up For Military Training As War With US, Israel ContinuesOutlook India · 19 Sep, 08:42 UTC
Turkiye revokes operating licence of Iran’s Bank Mellat in IstanbulAl Jazeera · 19 Sep, 08:18 UTC
Political Expert: Unity of Front Must Become a Law in Iran, Tehran Standing by HezbollahABNA English · 19 Sep, 06:50 UTC
Letting the Houthis Control the Red Sea Coast Would Be a Gift to TehranFoundation for Defense of Democracies · 19 Sep, 02:06 UTC
Iranian women defy law and run Tehran race without hijabAl Jazeera · 19 Sep, 01:45 UTC
Video: Women runners defy compulsory hijab rules at Tehran road raceIran International · 19 Sep, 00:49 UTC
Iran executes man after convicting him of giving Israel info on missile sites during 2025 warTimes of Israel · 19 Sep, 00:02 UTC
Iran nuclear official says Tehran has ‘ample options’ to defend itselfIran International · 18 Sep, 20:54 UTC
Zahedan Gunfire Shadows Basij-IRGC Parade Amid Sanctions, Police Abuse and DivisionNational Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI · 18 Sep, 19:11 UTC
Tehran rallies hundreds of thousands of civilians to ‘sacrifice their lives for Iran’: ‘We have no fear’New York Post · 18 Sep, 19:07 UTC
Pressure PointsWar on the Rocks · 18 Sep, 18:30 UTC
Iranians stage massive rally as Tehran urges citizens to take up armsinkl · 18 Sep, 18:05 UTC
Denying Palestinians visa for UN summit contravenes peace and statehoodTehran Times · 18 Sep, 17:53 UTC
End of the ‘unipolar order’: Sino-Russian vetoes deal a blow to US Iran sanctions pushTehran Times · 18 Sep, 17:40 UTC