Global Situation Board
Actor · non-state · Middle East

Hamas

3Elevated
Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

Hamas agreed in principle in August to disarm in stages but has surrendered no weapons and has not transferred governing authority, conditioning implementation on Israeli withdrawal under the Board of Peace plan. Israeli operations against its commanders continued, with the IDF saying on Sept 15 that it had killed Rafah Brigade commander Nael Abu Obeid and Jabalia Battalion commander Ahmad al-Batash.

Recent, assessed

  • 2026-09-15The IDF says it killed Hamas commanders Nael Abu Obeid of the Rafah Brigade and Ahmad al-Batash of the Jabalia Battalion (single-sourced). timesofisrael.com

Level history

Threat level after each research review12 September 2026 baseline: level 3; 12 September 2026 weekly review: level 3; 14 September 2026 weekly review: level 3; 15 September 2026 weekly review: level 31234512 September 2026, baseline: level 312 September 2026, weekly review: level 314 September 2026, weekly review: level 315 September 2026, weekly review: level 312 Sep14 Sep15 Septoday

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

DateLevelReview
2026-09-153Weekly review
2026-09-143Weekly review
2026-09-123Weekly review
2026-09-123Baseline

Latest headlines 1

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.