Iraq
Assessment
Iraq is both launch platform and target in the regional war, ahead of the Sept 30 double deadline when the US-led coalition mission ends and PM Ali al-Zaidi's date for militia disarmament falls. Drones launched from Iraqi soil struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline on Sept 10, forcing Riyadh to shut the line on Sept 11; al-Zaidi dismissed the Maysan operations commander and provincial police chief and opened an investigation, and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sept 15 that pipeline exports would resume within days. Iranian drones and missiles keep hitting Iranian Kurdish opposition camps in the Kurdistan Region, including three drones on a Komala site at Surdash in Sulaymaniyah governorate on Sept 7 and strikes on three camps on Sept 14, part of a campaign of more than 1,000 drones and missiles and over 30 dead since February. Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba still refuse to disarm while foreign forces remain, and Baghdad is reported to be preparing army and Counter Terrorism Service deployments around militia centres if the deadline passes.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-15US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the Saudi East-West pipeline, shut after drones launched from Iraq struck it, will resume exports within days. aljazeera.com
- 2026-09-12Iraq's prime minister dismisses the Maysan operations commander and provincial police chief and opens an investigation after the drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (snippet only). washingtontimes.com
- 2026-09-07Three Iranian drones strike a Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan camp at Surdash in Sulaymaniyah governorate, causing fire damage but no casualties; more than 30 people have been killed in such strikes since February. longwarjournal.org
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 3 | Tense/Stable | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 3 | Tense/Stable | ▲ escalating | Baseline |
Latest headlines 45
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.
- No fixed deadline for militia disarmament committee, says Iraqi PM adviser
- Inside the Houthi advance: How Iran's allies are helping tighten Tehran's grip on the Red Sea
- Saudi Arabia issues rare air-raid alerts for Riyadh
- Dollar Climbs Against Iraqi Dinar as Baghdad Rate Tops 160,000
- Sirens sound in Saudi capital for first time since Houthi escalation: ‘Clashes have intensified’
- The Houthis and the Mecca Trilateral Pact
- Letting the Houthis Control the Red Sea Coast Would Be a Gift to Tehran
- Beyond Hormuz: How Saudi Arabia’s Oil-Route Redundancy Is Being Tested – Analysis
- Iraq Says No Fixed Deadline for Weapons Disarmament
- 10 Kurdish migrants held hostage by Libya’s armed groups: Iraqi MP
- Saudi Arabia cancels oil shipments to European refineries
- Yazidi armed group YBS to disarm, integrate into Iraqi security forces
- No deadline for weapon consolidation committee: Iraqi PM advisor
- There’s only one way to defeat the Houthis
- Saudi Oil Shock for Europe: Aramco to Halt Crude Deliveries After Key Pipeline Attack