Infrastructure & domain sabotage
Assessment
Italian Air Force Eurofighters flying NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission from Siauliai shot down a drone over the Kaisiadorys district of Lithuania overnight into Sept 15, the first drone ever downed in Lithuanian airspace; the aircraft had loitered about 30 minutes after most likely entering from Belarus. On Sept 14 a Russian frigate fired flares toward a Danish Fennec helicopter in international waters and Denmark summoned Russia's ambassador on Sept 15, with Prime Minister Frederiksen calling the incident part of a pattern of hybrid pressure on the EU and NATO. These followed the Sept 13 closure of Vilnius airport over a drone sighting later attributed to birds, the Defense News report of Sept 10 that Russian GUGI submersibles rehearsed a traceless cable-disabling device in the Bear Gap, and the damage to at least 11 Baltic subsea cables between October 2023 and the end of 2025. Energy infrastructure sits in the same picture after drones launched from Iraq forced Saudi Arabia to shut the East-West pipeline on Sept 11 with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed since March.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-15NATO jets on Baltic Air Policing shoot down a drone over Lithuania's Kaisiadorys district, the first such shoot-down in Lithuanian airspace; the drone most likely entered from Belarus and flew for about 30 minutes. npr.org
- 2026-09-15Denmark summons Russia's ambassador after a Russian frigate fired flares toward a Danish Fennec helicopter in international waters on Sept 14; the foreign minister calls it unacceptable and the prime minister calls it reckless. themoscowtimes.com
- 2026-09-14NATO Secretary-General Rutte says at Brussels headquarters that strikes close to alliance territory will drive NATO to increase support for Kyiv and pledges to bolster defences along the eastern border. washingtontimes.com
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 4 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Baseline |
Latest headlines 6
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.
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- Saudi Aramco suspends crude deliveries to Indian refineries following pipeline attack
- Saudi Aramco halts crude supplies to Indian refiners after pipeline attack