Russian hybrid operations in Europe

Assessment

Russia-linked sabotage against Europe's defence industry has run at a near-weekly tempo since August: fires at the EMCO facility in Bulgaria on Aug 10, at Milrem Robotics in Estonia on Aug 14-15, which Estonia's prime minister called arson with suspected Russian involvement, at WB Electronics in Poland on Aug 31, and incendiary devices thrown at a site beside the Rohde & Schwarz and Helsing offices in Munich on the night of Sept 3, after which German police arrested two Bulgarian nationals. Germany attributed the failed explosive-drone plot against a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle to Russia on Sept 1, raised its threat level to high and closed Russian diplomatic premises, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Sept 9 that the attack had been planned in Russia for months, and Lavrov said on Sept 7 that Germany planted the evidence. Denmark's PET warned in early September that Russia is recruiting Danes on social media and gaming platforms, paying in cryptocurrency, to photograph defence sites, and Europe's defence industry association ASD urged firms, governments and security services on Sept 11 to step up vigilance and information-sharing. No newly attributed sabotage incident in an EU or NATO state was verified between Sept 14 and Sept 15.