Global Situation Board
Actor · state · Europe & Russia

Russia (Putin / Kremlin)

5Severe
Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

The Kremlin kept fighting while refusing to concede anything at the table: Russian forces made no confirmed advances on Sept 14 but sustained nightly drone waves and are scaling jet-powered Geran-4 production, fielding roughly 2,800 in August against 350 in June, with ISW assessing Russia may build at least 100 ballistic missiles in September. Peskov welcomed Trump's call for Ukrainian restraint on energy strikes on Sept 14 while refusing any reciprocal Russian commitment, and officials are setting conditions for involuntary reserve call-ups after the Sept 18-20 State Duma elections.

Recent, assessed

  • 2026-09-14ISW reported Russia launched 102-108 drones overnight with 85 downed by Ukrainian air defences, and assessed Russia fielded about 2,800 jet-powered Geran-4 drones in August against 350 in June while possibly producing at least 100 ballistic missiles in September. understandingwar.org
  • 2026-09-14Peskov welcomed Trump's call for Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure but refused to commit Russia to a reciprocal halt, with ISW noting Putin has rejected each mutual-moratorium offer so far. understandingwar.org

Level history

Threat level after each research review12 September 2026 baseline: level 5; 12 September 2026 weekly review: level 5; 14 September 2026 weekly review: level 5; 15 September 2026 weekly review: level 51234512 September 2026, baseline: level 512 September 2026, weekly review: level 514 September 2026, weekly review: level 515 September 2026, weekly review: level 512 Sep14 Sep15 Septoday

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

DateLevelReview
2026-09-155Weekly review
2026-09-145Weekly review
2026-09-125Weekly review
2026-09-125Baseline

Latest headlines 63

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.