South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)

Assessment

Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to edge toward a settlement without closing it: the two agreed in the week to Sept 11 to run state border delimitation from north to south starting at the Armenia-Azerbaijan-Georgia tripoint and to hold a meeting between foreign ministers Mirzoyan and Bayramov, while Baku restates that removing territorial claims from Armenia's constitution is a precondition for signing and implementation of the US-backed TRIPP corridor to Nakhchivan has slipped to 2027. Friction with Moscow is now economic as well as political: Gazprom suspended gas deliveries to Armenia from Sept 15 to Sept 25 for pipeline maintenance, with Yerevan signalling it could raise the rent for Russia's military base if gas prices rise. A cultural-heritage row reopened after Azerbaijani presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev presented the Gandzasar and Dadivank monasteries as Caucasian Albanian, which the Armenian Apostolic Church condemned. Georgia is consolidating authoritarian rule under Georgian Dream: State Security Service chief Gela Geladze resigned on Sept 14 after less than five months, and opposition United National Movement leader Giorgi Baramidze was detained in Tbilisi on Sept 11 on treason and sabotage charges over remarks about the 1992-93 Abkhazia war and remanded in custody.