Western Balkans

Assessment

Serbia's campaign for the Oct 25 early parliamentary election became the region's main escalation risk. On Sept 14 the student protest movement that has driven nearly two years of demonstrations marched through central Belgrade and formally submitted its own election list, and Vucic said he would resign the presidency on Sept 27 to lead the Serbian Progressive Party's campaign and become prime minister if it wins. The Ratko Mladic funeral of Sept 7, held in Belgrade with military honours and attended by government members and Milorad Dodik, continues to poison regional ties: Bosnia declared two Serbian embassy staff persona non grata on Sept 8 and suspended plans to sign a regional cooperation accord, and EU leaders warned the scenes undermine Belgrade's accession path. Bosnia votes on Oct 4 with Dodik barred from office but steering the SNSD, and Kosovo remains without a president and with Kurti as acting prime minister after its second election in six months.