Global Situation Board
Actor · state · Europe & Russia

Belarus (Lukashenko)

3Elevated
Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

Lukashenko's regime moved its Sept 11 order to inspect the army 'up to mobilization' into a live Sept 15-18 Western Operational Command exercise on the Polish and Lithuanian borders, rehearsing border cover, martial law and counter-drone tasks, with no reservist call-up figures published. Belarus hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons and, per Ukraine's HUR, the Oreshnik-armed 101st Missile Brigade, and its territory remained the corridor for the drone NATO jets shot down over Lithuania on Sept 15.

Recent, assessed

  • 2026-09-15Belarus launched a Sept 15-18 Western Operational Command command-and-staff exercise near the borders of Poland and Lithuania under Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveiko. charter97.org

Level history

Threat level after each research review12 September 2026 baseline: level 3; 12 September 2026 weekly review: level 3; 14 September 2026 weekly review: level 3; 15 September 2026 weekly review: level 31234512 September 2026, baseline: level 312 September 2026, weekly review: level 314 September 2026, weekly review: level 315 September 2026, weekly review: level 312 Sep14 Sep15 Septoday

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

DateLevelReview
2026-09-153Weekly review
2026-09-143Weekly review
2026-09-123Weekly review
2026-09-123Baseline

Latest headlines 29

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.