Belarus
Assessment
Belarus moved from rhetoric to a live exercise on its NATO borders: the Defence Ministry opened a Western Operational Command command-and-staff exercise running Sept 15-18 under Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveiko at the Gozhsky, Brestsky and Ruzhansky ranges in the Grodno and Brest regions, training border cover, martial-law enforcement, counter-sabotage and counter-drone tasks. That followed Lukashenko's Sept 11 order that readiness inspections continue 'up to mobilization', with no reservist numbers or call-up dates published. Belarusian territory remained the corridor for air incursions into NATO airspace: Lithuanian officials said the drone NATO jets destroyed over central Lithuania on Sept 15 entered from Belarus, after an unidentified object crossed near Varena on Sept 13. Ukraine's HUR assesses that Russia's Oreshnik-armed 101st Missile Brigade is deployed in Belarus alongside the tactical nuclear weapons based there since 2023.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-15Belarus's Defence Ministry opened a Sept 15-18 Western Operational Command command-and-staff exercise led by Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveiko at the Gozhsky, Brestsky and Ruzhansky ranges near the Polish and Lithuanian borders, practising border security, martial law, counter-sabotage and counter-drone operations. charter97.org
- 2026-09-15NATO fighter jets destroyed a drone over central Lithuania that Lithuanian officials said had entered from Belarusian territory. france24.com
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 3 | Watch | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 3 | Watch | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 3 | Watch | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 3 | Watch | ▲ escalating | Baseline |
Latest headlines 52
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.
- Lukashenko released only 25 political prisoners instead of the several hundred expected by the US
- A difficult road to de-escalation: What the US-Belarus talks revealed - Analysis by Limansky
- Alleged Lukashenko henchman to appear before the St. Gallen Cantonal Court
- Ukraine detects Russian drone signal relays operating in Belarus
- Belarus and China Outline New Areas of Cooperation in Tourism, Education, and Sports
- Switzerland surrounds the Belarusian regime with sanctions
- Lukashenko suggests planting more potatoes in Belarus in future
- Sibiga: Ukraine has always distinguished between the Belarusian people and Lukashenko’s regime
- Belarus: Accomplice in Russia's War Against Ukraine and a Thread to International Security
- A sucker is fate: Zelensky's office said that it was impossible to negotiate with Lukashenko
- Tears of happiness, gift from president. Lukashenko finds livestock specialist for agricultural enterprise
- Lukashenko calls for major overhaul of Mogilev Oblast by next year
- Rachkov on Coale-Lukashenko talks: There are no immediate major results in big-league politics
- Western countries and Ukraine have made tough demands on Belarus
- Lukashenko set task to plant more potatoes in Belarus