Gulf states & Turkey

Assessment

The war reached Saudi Arabia's western heartland on Sept 15, when Saudi civil defence activated Mecca's emergency warning system for the first time in the conflict along with alerts for Jeddah and Taif before declaring the danger passed, after Houthi missiles and drones on Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif wounded 13 civilians. Every Gulf state plus Jordan has been under Iranian missile and drone fire since Feb 28, and Riyadh's East-West pipeline, its main Hormuz bypass to Red Sea terminals, stayed shut after the Sept 10 drone strike launched from Iraq until US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sept 15 that exports would resume within days. The first regional attempt to manage the Strait of Hormuz collapsed before convening when Oman postponed the Sept 14 Salalah meeting of Iranian, Iraqi and Gulf foreign ministers with no new date, Bahrain having already refused to attend. Brent rose 1.77 percent to about 107.55 dollars on Sept 15 with Goldman Sachs citing a raised probability of 120 dollars, while Turkey's Kurdish peace process runs toward the Oct 1 PKK camp-disarmament date.