Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war

Assessment

Large-scale Afghanistan-Pakistan hostilities have subsided since late June and early July 2026, though the Security Council Report's September 2026 forecast records relations as tense over cross-border militancy and disrupted trade and transit. UNAMA documented 399 civilian casualties from cross-border armed violence between April and June 2026 and attributed all of them to Pakistani forces. The violence has shifted inside Pakistan, where Balochistan overtook Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the deadliest province of 2026 and the TTP and BLA are expanding into previously quiet Pashtun districts; Pakistan's military said on Sept 3 it had killed 15 TTP fighters crossing into North Waziristan in a 36-hour exchange begun on Aug 31. Pakistan's interior minister said on Aug 9 that all crossings and transit routes with Afghanistan would reopen, and as of Sept 15 no reopening to cargo has been confirmed, with Torkham, Spin Boldak and Bahramcha reported open only for the return of Afghan migrants, while Pakistan's state broadcaster reported on Sept 15 that Afghanistan Freedom Front leader Yasin Zia claims anti-Taliban armed resistance is beyond the Taliban's control.