Thailand–Cambodia & Southeast Asia

Assessment

Thailand and Cambodia remain frozen under the December 2025 land-border ceasefire with demarcation unresolved and about 409,000 still displaced, but the two governments opened a compulsory conciliation process under UNCLOS in Singapore on Sept 15, where foreign ministers Sihasak Phuangketkeow and Prak Sokhonn exchanged opening statements before a five-member commission over overlapping maritime claims to gas-bearing waters after Thailand terminated a 25-year memorandum of understanding in June 2026; any outcome is non-binding and Bangkok argued for direct negotiations instead. Rhetoric on the land border hardened when Thailand's Joint Information Centre on Sept 12 urged an independent examination of evidence it says shows Cambodian troops using the Preah Vihear temple area as a military position. The Philippine institutional crisis continues: Vice-President Sara Duterte posted bail on Sept 5 after a Quezon City arrest warrant over three counts of grave threats, and her impeachment trial reached its 25th day on Sept 15 with an Office of the Ombudsman records official testifying on the unexplained-wealth article. Bangladesh under PM Tarique Rahman said on Sept 10 it would send no representative to the BRICS summit, and Indonesia remains unsettled after the Aug 27-28 Jakarta rioting.