Global Situation Board
Actor · state · Indo-Pacific & South Asia

Myanmar junta (Min Aung Hlaing)

4High
Assessed 15 September 2026

Assessment

Its Operation 4926, launched on Sept 4 as the largest Rakhine offensive in over two years across five fronts, had captured no Arakan Army territory or outposts as of Sept 14, with columns in Kyaukphyu Township forced back onto airstrikes and naval artillery after heavy losses and reporting of rising casualties and desertions among newly conscripted troops. With ground advances stalled it leans on air power, killing two civilians and wounding three in an airstrike near the Uri Taung Pagoda in Ponnagyun town on Sept 13.

Recent, assessed

  • 2026-09-14Burma News International reports junta columns in Kyaukphyu Township repelled by the Arakan Army, with regime forces resorting to airstrikes and naval artillery cover and abandoning weapons and bodies after engagements near the Taung Maw Oo naval station. bnionline.net

Level history

Threat level after each research review12 September 2026 baseline: level 4; 12 September 2026 weekly review: level 4; 14 September 2026 weekly review: level 4; 15 September 2026 weekly review: level 41234512 September 2026, baseline: level 412 September 2026, weekly review: level 414 September 2026, weekly review: level 415 September 2026, weekly review: level 412 Sep14 Sep15 Septoday

Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.

DateLevelReview
2026-09-154Weekly review
2026-09-144Weekly review
2026-09-124Weekly review
2026-09-124Baseline

Latest headlines 3

Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.