South & East China Sea
Assessment
Chinese pressure on the Philippines sharpened through early September 2026. On Sept 2 the PLA Southern Theater Command ran live-fire joint air-naval drills at Scarborough Shoal in which JL-10 trainers carrying live missiles intercepted a Philippine turboprop aircraft, the first disclosed use of trainers in such an intercept, and Manila protested on Sept 7 over what it called repeated aggressive, unprofessional and illegal Chinese conduct. The coercion extends beyond Philippine vessels: a study by CSIS's Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, reported on Sept 13, found the China Coast Guard had radio-queried operators of nearly 200 commercial ships transiting the Philippine Sea about their port calls and crews. Defence Secretary Teodoro read out and rejected a Chinese note dismissing the 2016 arbitral award at the Seoul Defense Dialogue on Sept 8, Beijing told him on Sept 9 to 'cut the provocations and theatrics', and no new incident at sea was reported on Sept 14 or Sept 15.
Recent, assessed
- 2026-09-13A CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative study reported this day finds the China Coast Guard questioned operators of nearly 200 commercial ships transiting the Philippine Sea about port calls and crews, activity that intensified after the May 2026 Japan-Philippines maritime and defence announcements (snippet only). eurasiareview.com
Level history
Levels set by research reviews. A level set by hand is shown at the top of the page while it is in force and is not part of this history.
| Date | Level | Status | Trend | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 3 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-14 | 3 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 3 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Weekly review |
| 2026-09-12 | 3 | Escalating | ▲ escalating | Baseline |
Latest headlines 73
Matched to this entry by keyword from the pull of 19 Sep, 11:09 UTC. Not reviewed; some may be off-topic.
- Chinese Coast Guard Ship Rams Into Philippine Govt Vessel In The South China Sea
- ‘Intentional ramming’: China Coast Guard damages Philippine ship in West PH Sea
- Philippine vessel collides with China Coast Guard ship near Xianbin Jiao
- Collision course! - Manila, Beijing trade blame after Philippine fisheries ship SLAMS into Chinese coast guard vessel
- Philippines says China Coast Guard ship rammed its boat in South China Sea
- Philippines slams Chinese ship's aggressive action in South China Sea collision
- Philippines, China accuse each other over collision at sea
- China coast guard rams BFAR vessel off Palawan
- Philippines says Chinese ship ‘rammed’ government vessel in South China Sea
- Philippines told to stop provocation
- PCG: China’s ‘ramming’ of BFAR boat closest to PH coast ever
- DFA to China: Avoid escalation after collision off Palawan
- Philippines, Australia Deepen Ties to Expand Maritime Security
- 'Ship Hit Hard': China & Philippines Clash Again; Another Naval Ramming near Sabina Shoal | Vantage
- China Coast Guard rams Philippine ship near Palawan