Taiwan Strait

Assessment

PLA air activity around Taiwan sits at its lowest level since 2024, with 125 ADIZ incursions in August, while maritime grey-zone pressure holds at record levels: China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan have rotated roughly every 30 days since June 1, with relief rotations on July 4, Aug 4 and Sept 4, and a record 244 PRC vessels were logged in July. AEI's Sept 15 update records PLA Daily articles on Sept 13 and 14 pressing the mobilisation of civilian resources for military use and the role of civilian entities in information and cognitive 'control warfare'. Taipei is spending regardless, with the Executive Yuan approving a supplementary defence budget of about 4.6 billion dollars on Sept 10, including 1.77 billion for unmanned systems, on top of the NT$240 billion drone budget passed in August. Trump's 14 billion dollar arms package stays frozen and the Taiwan language at the Sept 24 Washington summit is the main variable before October, while Beijing widened economic pressure on Tokyo, which protested anti-dumping duties of 80 to 99 percent on semiconductor-grade dichlorosilane on Sept 7.