Morning note
24 September 2026
Overnight movers picked from the morning's headline pull and judged on the headlines alone, without opening the articles, followed by the dates coming up in the next seven days. How the board works.
Overnight movers
- US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war): A cargo ship was reported hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz and set on fire, with one killed, and Iran was reported to have targeted sites in Bahrain and Kuwait after a wave of US strikes. Middle East Monitor, EnergyNow. Matches watch indicator: Successful Iranian mining of the Strait of Hormuz or a further tanker struck in the strait.
- Saudi Arabia–Houthi war: Houthi forces were reported to have hit Saudi-allied soldiers in a surprise attack in Jazan, and the UK was reported to be providing air-to-air refuelling aircraft to support Saudi jets. The Times of India, Мілітарний. No listed indicator.
- Russia–Ukraine war: Russian attacks were reported to have killed eight people across Ukraine as the US stepped up diplomacy during the UN General Assembly. Al Jazeera. No listed indicator.
- Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war: Pakistan was reported to have struck 10 sites in Afghanistan after drone incursions, with Kabul saying four civilians were killed, and a resident reported an airstrike hitting Kandahar city. 10net.in, BSS. Matches watch indicator: Further Pakistani airstrikes beyond Kunar and Paktika, particularly on Kabul or Kandahar.
- Ethiopia & Eritrea: Renewed fighting between federal and Tigrayan forces was reported, with both sides accusing the other of launching offensives and reports describing the 2022 peace deal as effectively shattered. ABC News, BBC. No listed indicator.
- South Sudan: The government was reported dissolved, with President Kiir appointing ministers in caretaker positions. WION, Business News Nigeria. Matches watch indicator: Dissolution of the unity government or removal of the vice-presidents.
- Russia–NATO frontier: A Russian Mi-8 helicopter was reported to have briefly entered Polish airspace, prompting Poland to scramble jets. Politico Europe. No listed indicator.
- US posture in the hemisphere: The US-Denmark pact on Greenland was reported signed, with Greenland's delegation welcomed home. Al Jazeera. Matches watch indicator: Formal signature of the Greenland agreement and its approval by the Danish and Greenlandic parliaments.
Dates in the next 7 days
- 2026-09-24: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (Taiwan Strait; South & East China Sea; North Korea; US–China relations; Global institutions & diplomacy)
- 2026-09-25: Official Russian State Duma election results due no earlier than this date (Russia–Ukraine war)
- 2026-09-25: Russian gas deliveries to Armenia are due to resume after pipeline maintenance (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
- 2026-09-26: FSB curfew and movement restrictions on the Russian side of the Narva border zone with Estonia due to end (Russia–NATO frontier)
- 2026-09-27: Panel of Experts expiry and 90-day 1737 Committee briefing (Iran nuclear program)
- 2026-09-27: UN Iran Panel of Experts mandate lapses (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
- 2026-09-27: Vucic says he will resign the Serbian presidency to lead his party's election campaign (Western Balkans)
- 2026-09-29: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
- 2026-09-29: US import bans on Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, whey and other goods take effect (US posture in the hemisphere)
- 2026-09-30: Approval window for the election deal closes (approximate) (Libya)
- 2026-09-30: Curfew in Guayas, Manabi, Los Rios and El Oro under Ecuador's Decree 498 due to end (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission (Iraq; Private military companies & proxies)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission in Iraq; Iraqi officials say it is not a disarmament deadline (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)
- 2026-09-30: Tulkarm and Nur Shams camp closure orders lapse or renew (West Bank)
- 2026-09-30: UN Security Council vote on re-authorising the Gang Suppression Force; current mandate expires (Haiti)
- 2026-09-30: UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate) (Syria transition)
- 2026-10-01: Expected evacuation of PKK camps in the Qandil mountains (Turkey–PKK peace process)
- 2026-10-01: PKK camp evacuation date under the Turkish peace process (Iraq)
- 2026-10-01: Point from which the Iraqi government says the weapons-monopoly plan begins to be implemented (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)