Morning note
25 September 2026
Overnight movers picked from the morning's headline pull and judged on the headlines alone, without opening the articles, followed by the dates coming up in the next seven days. How the board works.
Overnight movers
- Russia–Ukraine war: Zelensky reported that Washington proposed a technical-level trilateral Ukraine-US-Russia meeting, with the UAE floated as the venue. UNITED24 Media, Ukrinform. No listed indicator (no date set yet for the round).
- Saudi Arabia–Houthi war: Fresh Houthi missile fire on Saudi Arabia was reported, with Saudi forces reported intercepting it, as France pledged to help defend a key Saudi oil port. EA WorldView, Modern Ghana. No listed indicator.
- US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war): Iran was reported to have submitted a seven-day roadmap to end the war with the US and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera, NYT. No listed indicator.
- Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger): Numerous Nigerien soldiers were reported killed in Tillabéri, alongside reported deadly JNIM attacks in central Mali. Demócrata, Critical Threats. No listed indicator.
- Ethiopia & Eritrea: Ethiopia's military was reported to say it killed hundreds of TPLF fighters, as outlets describe the truce as collapsed and Tigray back at war. DW, The Australian. No listed indicator.
- Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war: New border clashes were reported, with Pakistani sources saying they repelled an attack and killed several Afghan Taliban fighters. Deccan Herald, Afghanistan International. Matches watch indicator: Afghan Taliban retaliation against Pakistani border posts or territory.
- State cyber operations: The Bitget exchange reported a theft of about $352 million, which its CEO attributed to suspected North Korean hackers. The Hacker News, Yahoo Finance. Matches watch indicator: A DPRK crypto heist above 100 million dollars.
- South & East China Sea: The Philippines reported that Chinese ships obstructed a resupply run to the BRP Sierra Madre, the first such obstruction since 2024. ThePrint, ABS-CBN. Matches watch indicator: Sierra Madre resupply outcomes at Second Thomas Shoal.
Dates in the next 7 days
- 2026-09-25: Official Russian State Duma election results due no earlier than this date (Russia–Ukraine war)
- 2026-09-25: Russian gas deliveries to Armenia are due to resume after pipeline maintenance (South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia))
- 2026-09-26: FSB curfew and movement restrictions on the Russian side of the Narva border zone with Estonia due to end (Russia–NATO frontier)
- 2026-09-27: Panel of Experts expiry and 90-day 1737 Committee briefing (Iran nuclear program)
- 2026-09-27: UN Iran Panel of Experts mandate lapses (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
- 2026-09-27: Vucic says he will resign the Serbian presidency to lead his party's election campaign (Western Balkans)
- 2026-09-29: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
- 2026-09-29: US import bans on Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, whey and other goods take effect (US posture in the hemisphere)
- 2026-09-30: Approval window for the election deal closes (approximate) (Libya)
- 2026-09-30: Curfew in Guayas, Manabi, Los Rios and El Oro under Ecuador's Decree 498 due to end (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission (Iraq; Private military companies & proxies)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission in Iraq; Iraqi officials say it is not a disarmament deadline (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)
- 2026-09-30: Tulkarm and Nur Shams camp closure orders lapse or renew (West Bank)
- 2026-09-30: UN Security Council vote on re-authorising the Gang Suppression Force; current mandate expires (Haiti)
- 2026-09-30: UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate) (Syria transition)
- 2026-10-01: Expected evacuation of PKK camps in the Qandil mountains (Turkey–PKK peace process)
- 2026-10-01: PKK camp evacuation date under the Turkish peace process (Iraq)
- 2026-10-01: Point from which the Iraqi government says the weapons-monopoly plan begins to be implemented (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)