Morning note
26 September 2026
Overnight movers picked from the morning's headline pull and judged on the headlines alone, without opening the articles, followed by the dates coming up in the next seven days. How the board works.
Overnight movers
- Russia–Ukraine war: Seven people were reported killed as Russia and Ukraine exchanged strikes, and Ukrainian drones were reported to have hit a Russian oil refinery supplying Moscow's forces. 7 dead as Russia, Ukraine exchange strikes; Ukraine's drone strikes hit Russian refinery. No listed indicator.
- Saudi Arabia–Houthi war: The Houthis were reported to have attacked Saudi Arabia again, and Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were reported to be holding talks after the attacks. Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again; Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia to hold talks. No listed indicator.
- Sudan civil war: The Sudanese army and allied forces were reported to have seized Sodari, and state media reported that an RSF armed group had defected to the army. Sudanese army and allies seize Sodari; RSF group defects to army. Matches watch indicator: An SAF capture of Sodari or a push along Route 40 toward Darfur.
- US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war): Trump was reported to have rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and to be planning new strikes, while Iran said it was still awaiting a US response. Trump reportedly rejects Iran's seven-day deal; Iran awaits US response. No listed indicator.
- Lebanon & Hezbollah: An Israeli strike in Bint Jbeil was reported to have killed 12 medical workers. Israeli strike killed 12 medical workers. No listed indicator.
- Afghanistan and the Afghanistan–Pakistan war: Pakistan reported killing 13 Afghan Taliban personnel in an overnight border clash, a claim Kabul was reported to deny. 13 Taliban personnel killed, Pakistan says; Pakistani forces kill Taliban fighters in border clash. No listed indicator.
- State cyber operations: The Bitget crypto exchange was reported to say North Korea-linked hackers stole about 351.6 million dollars. Bitget says North Korea-linked hackers stole $351.6M; North Korean hackers linked to Bitget theft. Matches watch indicator: A DPRK crypto heist above 100 million dollars.
- Somalia: Puntland forces were reported to have freed the hijacked, US-sanctioned tanker Sibu 1 and all 20 crew after a 48-hour operation. Puntland forces free hijacked tanker Sibu 1; Hijacked tanker rescued after 48-hour operation. Matches watch indicator: Further hijackings off Puntland or a new pirate mothership.
Dates in the next 7 days
- 2026-09-26: FSB curfew and movement restrictions on the Russian side of the Narva border zone with Estonia due to end (Russia–NATO frontier)
- 2026-09-27: Panel of Experts expiry and 90-day 1737 Committee briefing (Iran nuclear program)
- 2026-09-27: UN Iran Panel of Experts mandate lapses (US and Israel vs Iran (Hormuz war))
- 2026-09-27: Vucic says he will resign the Serbian presidency to lead his party's election campaign (Western Balkans)
- 2026-09-29: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear weapons & arms control)
- 2026-09-29: US import bans on Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, whey and other goods take effect (US posture in the hemisphere)
- 2026-09-30: Approval window for the election deal closes (approximate) (Libya)
- 2026-09-30: Curfew in Guayas, Manabi, Los Rios and El Oro under Ecuador's Decree 498 due to end (Ecuador, Peru & Bolivia)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission (Iraq; Private military companies & proxies)
- 2026-09-30: End of the US-led coalition mission in Iraq; Iraqi officials say it is not a disarmament deadline (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)
- 2026-09-30: Tulkarm and Nur Shams camp closure orders lapse or renew (West Bank)
- 2026-09-30: UN Security Council vote on re-authorising the Gang Suppression Force; current mandate expires (Haiti)
- 2026-09-30: UNSC monthly Syria meeting (approximate) (Syria transition)
- 2026-10-01: Expected evacuation of PKK camps in the Qandil mountains (Turkey–PKK peace process)
- 2026-10-01: PKK camp evacuation date under the Turkish peace process (Iraq)
- 2026-10-01: Point from which the Iraqi government says the weapons-monopoly plan begins to be implemented (Iraqi Shia militia disarmament crisis)